All NewsMarch 31, 2025

Stock Market Today: Stocks tumble as tariffs trigger recession risks

U.S. stocks tumbled in early Monday trading, while Treasury bonds and gold rallied, as global markets reacted to President Donald Trump’s threat of damaging trade tariffs, which could tip the world’s biggest economy into recession over the coming months.

Updated at 11:37 AM EDT

No quarter

The Dow has crept in to positive territory for the day, with tariff-resilient stocks such as Coca-Cola  (KO) , UnitedHealth  (UNH)  and Verizon  (VZ)  pacing the 30-stock average.

More broadly, however, the S&P 500 is down 33 points, or 0.6% on the session, with the Nasdaq falling 257 points, or 1.5%, to extend its quarterly decline to 11.5%, the fourth-worst first quarter decline on record. 

Updated at 9:38 AM EDT

Red open

The S&P 500 was marked 60 points, or 1.07% lower in the opening minutes of trading, with the the tech-focused Nasdaq fell 315 points, or 1.82%.

The Dow slumped 302 points while the mid-cap Russell 2000 fell 34 points, or 1.69% amid the broader tariff and growth uncertainty.

“Last week the stock market’s rebound reversed as inflation, consumer sentiment, and—mostly—tariffs dominated headlines. And even though this is the week of the monthly jobs report, tariffs will likely continue to drive the market discussion,” said Chris Larkin, managing director for trading and investing at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. 

“The S&P 500 is positioned to start the week by testing its mid-March correction lows, so whether tariffs are more or less rigid than expected could go a long way toward shaping the market’s near-term momentum,” he added. “But any announcement that reduces tariff uncertainty, one way or the other, could help reduce volatility.”

Updated at 8:16 AM EDT

Moderna shot

Moderna  (MRNA)  shares fell sharply in early Monday trading amid reports that a top U.S. Food and Drug Administration official has left amid clashes with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over the use vaccines in public policy.

Peter Marks, a key architect of President Donald Trump’s “Warp Speed” Covid-vaccine strategy, will leave the FDA later this week, following news that Kennedy will lead an overhaul of public-health agencies that includes 10,000 job cuts.

Moderna shares were marked 11.8% lower in premarket trading to indicate an opening bell price of $27.45 each. 

Stock Market Today

President Trump told reporters on Air Force One last night that the so-called reciprocal tariffs he plans to impose on Wednesday will apply to all countries, not just a select group with large and persistent trade imbalances, as had been previously suggested from administration insiders.

The broader scope of the tariff plan, alongside threats to create secondary levies on the sale of Russian crude if Trump fails to strike a deal with President Vladimir Putin to end that country’s war on Ukraine, has raised the prospect of a sharp global slowdown and stoked demand for safe-haven assets. 

Goldman Sachs in fact lifted the odds of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 35% from a prior call of 20%, citing “the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”

President Donald Trump told reporters on Air Force One last night that so-called reciprocal tariffs will “start with all countries” later this week.

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The bank also estimates first-quarter GDP grew just 0.2%, down from a 1.8% forecast at the start of the year, and expects the S&P 500 to fall another 5%, to around 5,300 points, over the next three months. 

Those projections, which are starting to echo across Wall Street, helped drive gold prices to a fresh all-time high of $3,115.97 an ounce in overnight trading, the bullion’s 15th record of the year, while sparking another rally in safe-haven Treasuries.

Benchmark 10-year note yields were last marked 6 basis points lower from Friday at 4.192% heading into the start of the New York trading session, with 2-year notes trading 6 basis points lower at 3.846%.

Related: Fed inflation gauge shows early tariff impact

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 is set to open 55 points lower at the start of trading, a move that would take it within 5 points of its closing low on March 13. it would also drag the benchmark back into correction territory based on the all-time high it printed on February 19.

The S&P 500 is in fact on pace for its weakest first quarter in five years, and the worst overall quarterly performance in three, thanks in part to outsized pullbacks for megacap tech stocks and a broader rotation into European equities. 

The market’s benchmark volatility gauge, CBOE Group’s VIX index, surged 25.28% higher in overnight trading to $23.97, a level that suggests daily swings of 1.5%, or 83 points, for the S&P 500. 

The tech-focused Nasdaq, which is down 8.1% for the month and more than 10.3% for the year, is priced for a 255 point opening bell decline with the Dow Jones Industrial Average called 280 points lower. 

More Economic Analysis:

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was marked 1.28% lower in midday Frankfurt trading, with Britain’s FTSE 100 falling 1.03% in London.

Overnight in Asia, Japan’s auto-heavy Nikkei 225 tumbled 4.05%, taking the benchmark to the lowest levels in six months, ahead of both the new reciprocal tariffs and planned auto-sector tariffs that Trump will impose later in the week.

The regionwide MSCI ex-Japan benchmark, meanwhile, fell 1.88% lower into the close of trading. 

Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&P 500 forecast