All NewsJune 18, 2025

Stock Market Today: Waiting on the Fed

Happy Fed Day!

Will they or won’t they? Actually, that’s not really the question. The market is pricing in almost a 0% chance that the Federal Reserve moves on interest rates today. 

So, any move will be a huge surprise. The real question is what will the Fed say? About future moves, that is.

Look for a statement from the Fed around 2 p.m. U.S. EDT today and a news conference with Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.

Following the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate call, Chairman Jerome Powell is set to hold his regular news conference on June 18, 2025.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

This morning’s economic reports include initial jobless claims and housing starts.

Jobless claims dropped to 245,000 for the week of June 14, below expectations of 251,000. While the beat is good, this is near the highest levels of the year and indicates a cooling job market.

Housing starts were also below expectations, which in this case is not good. Starts were 1.26 million vs. a forecast of 1.36 million.

Housing remains unaffordable for many Americans.

So, how are markets reacting?

Honestly, I think they’re paying more attention to the Middle East and waiting for the Fed.

Speaking of the Middle East, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said that he will not surrender to Israel. So, investors should not expect a quick end to this conflict.

Futures are modestly higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 0.12%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is 0.2% higher. 

Bonds are rallying, too, although well off their highs of the day. The U.S. 10-year treasury note is up 0.04% and is priced to yield 4.38%.

Crude oil continues tomarch higher on Middle East tensions.

ThinkOrSwim

Thought of the day: It’s the reaction to news that matters. And when expected relationships change, it’s important to understand why and what that means.

Here, Timmer shows that typical “risk off” reactions to news have changed. The U.S. is looking less like the safe haven it has always been for investors.