Analyst sees an unpleasant change coming to Amazon Prime | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

People tend to have mixed opinions about Amazon (AMZN) as a company, but many could care less as long as their packages are delivered on time.

180 million Americans subscribed to Amazon Prime as of 2024, according to research from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, a company that has tracked Amazon memberships since 2014.

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That’s a massive number of folks willing to pay $139 a year for Amazon’s signature speed-of-light shipping, along with access to Prime Day, Prime Video, Prime Reading, Amazon Music, discounts at Whole Foods and more.

Amazon has worked hard to make sure the service offers plenty more than just fast shipping as its raised the price over the years. When it launched in 2005, Amazon Prime was just $79 annually.

Its last price hike was in 2022, when it went from $119 to $139. But the increase didn’t deter growth, and the subscriber base has continued to increase every year.

Now experts say that Amazon has a change coming this year that subscribers aren’t going to like.

JP Morgan’s outlook on Amazon’s future moves

According to a new research note released by J.P. Morgan on June 25, it’s highly likely that Amazon Prime will increase in price soon.

“The expectation is driven by rising costs in shipping, fulfillment, and the expansion of Prime’s offerings, including streaming and exclusive content,” the note reads.

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J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth deeply researched Prime and estimated that unbundling all of its components shows that the subscription is worth a lot more than the $139 price tag.

Anmuth’s estimations value a Prime subscription at $1,430 per year, in fact.

This is why J.P. Morgan predicts that the retail giant will likely increase the price of Prime to $159 in 2026, which is on par with Amazon’s cycle of increasing the cost every four years.

Amazon has good reason to make the move too. According to the note, “A $20 U.S. Prime price increase is seen driving about $3 billion in incremental annualized net sales.”

J.P. Morgan also projected that Prime will continue to see major growth, predicting that the company will approach 350M members in 2025.

How this Amazon Prime increase could be different

While J.P. Morgan clearly sees Amazon increasing the cost of Prime in the near future as a good thing for its business, people may not be as amicable to the idea as they have been in the past.

An uncertain economic climate, driven largely by the trade war started by the announcement of President Trump’s tariffs in April, has caused consumers to become very wary of any purchases that aren’t absolutely necessary.

This is starkly reflected in the retail report for May, where sales fell 0.9% per the Commerce Department. Compared to only a 1% decline in April, it marks a steep change in the way people are spending – or choosing not to spend – their money.

It’s hard to say how things may change by 2026, when Amazon would most likely announce a price increase. But its next jump may make the service too rich for people’s tastes.