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The stock market’s been cruising on soft-landing optimism, with the S&P 500 hanging tough despite macro headwinds.

However, with inflation metrics dominating the headlines, something quieter is stirring up the pot in the background.

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The job market data has been showing subtle shifts. We’re not talking the usual fireworks regarding rate cuts or CPI shocks, at least not yet.

However, even a small wobble could force a rethink in a stock market that is hanging on to momentum.

Jobless claims are on the radar, with top analysts eyeing their ripple effect on the stock market

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Jobless claims show resilience, but cracks emerge

The job market kicked off things with a bang this year.

In early January, initial jobless claims dropped to 201,000, their lowest level since April 2021, stunning economists in the process.

For a moment, some felt that the labor market had finally shaken off post-pandemic volatility for good.

But that stability didn’t last long.

Claims rose again the following week, climbing to 217,000 as seasonal pressures and wildfire disruptions on the West Coast slowed hiring. A week later, filings edged up higher again to 223,000.

Still, not all signs pointed to trouble.

Jobless claims dropped again to 207,000 by January 25 due to solid payrolls and consumer spending.

Moreover, even through the spring, the labor market stayed firm, especially for an economy up against tariff shocks, cautious corporate guidance, and sticky inflation.

In late May, claims were back at 233,000, not alarming, but still on the higher side. The four-week average hovered near 241,000, as layoffs in manufacturing continued to weigh on the numbers.

Also, continuing claims were a lot more worrying, with that figure sitting stubbornly between 1.94 million and 1.96 million, the highest since late 2021.

Then came July.

Despite holiday-week distortions, jobless claims of 227,000 and then 221,000 the following week were far better than Wall Street expectations.

That dip reminded analysts that even with a slowdown in growth, the job market has some fight left.

But no one’s getting too comfortable.

Rising continuing claims show that longer-term unemployment is creeping higher in some sectors.

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Also, with the Fed holding rates steady, every shift in labor data is under the scanner.

Jobless claims could send message stock market can’t ignore

Jobless claims became a critical metric for investors looking for a read on the economy’s pulse.

U.S. equities strategist at Societe Generale’s Manish Kabra feels that if weekly numbers stay under 250,000, the stock market may keep its footing.

A break above that, though, could flash a warning signal Wall Street won’t like.

Initial jobless claims are essentially a measure of how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given week.

It’s real-time data, much more frequent than other big-ticket reports like CPI or payrolls. And while inflation is still top-of-mind, Kabra says stock investors need to keep an eye out for a critical data point.

Historically, when weekly claims get closer to 300,000, a recession tends to follow within just six months.

The U.S. isn’t there yet, but that metric suggests it could be.. Last week’s figure was 221,000, and this week’s reading is expected to tick up to 229,000. If that trend continues, it could kill all the enthusiasm driving the markets.

Rising jobless claims effectively mean slower consumer spending, as fewer people working usually means less money flowing into the economy.

That significantly weakens earnings outlooks, especially for consumer-driven sectors. It also ramps up recession chatter, which typically pulls the market down quickly.

So while CPI grabs headlines, jobless claims are quietly shaping up to be the market’s next big move.