Broadcom ties its fate to a massive AI gamble

Having covered the tech space for years, one theme that stood out was that the biggest company transformations were CEO-led.

Think of Steve Jobs’ stunning return to Apple in 1997 when it was worth roughly $3 billion; today, it’s north of $3 trillion. Or Satya Nadella, who took Microsoft from an essentially $300 billion stagnator into a $3 trillion cloud behemoth.

Then there’s the maverick Lisa Su, who turned AMD’s stock from $2 to triple-digits, lifting its market cap into the hundreds of billions.

Broadcom  (AVGO) is now looking to do the same, and the company’s AI future may hinge on its innovative CEO Hock Tan, with the company staking an audacious numerical goal to match.

Broadcom just handed its CEO a staggering new challenge.

Image source: Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Broadcom sets bold AI target to rival Nvidia

Broadcom isn’t looking to just extend CEO Hock Tan’s leadership. It has also linked to arguably the most ambitious revenue goals in the chip space.

According to a regulatory filing on Sept. 9, Tan could earn 610,521 shares of AVGO if Broadcom’s AI sales clock the $90 billion mark by fiscal 2030. 

Based on the Sept. 9 closing price of $336.67, that massive payday could be a whopping $205.5 million.

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The incentives don’t stop there, though.

If Broadcom’s AI revenues jump to $120 billion, Tan’s award could rise in tandem to roughly $616.6 million at current prices. 

As the filing says, “The independent members of the Board approved the Tan PSU Award to incentivize Mr. Tan to extend his leadership of the Company through fiscal 2030.”

That’s a massive yardstick for Broadcom as it ramps up competition with tech giant Nvidia. Unlike Nvidia, which looks to dominate with its general-purpose GPUs, Broadcom is betting big on custom XPUs.

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These chips are essentially turned to handle specific workloads, offering better cost, scale, and performance for the big clients.

Until last quarter, Broadcom had three major but unnamed customers for its XPU sales. On its Q3 call, Tan confirmed a fourth big win. 

Reports later pointed to ChatGPT maker OpenAI, which could contribute in Q4 with orders near the $10 billion mark.

Why Broadcom stands out in AI

As mentioned earlier, Broadcom isn’t looking to ape Nvidia at its own game, but it’s looking to change it.

Nvidia has made a name for itself with its potent and versatile general-purpose GPUs, while Broadcom is developing custom AI accelerators (XPUs) co-designed with hyperscalers.

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Think of Nvidia as more of a Swiss Army knife that is great at a variety of tasks, while Broadcom makes the single, laser-tuned tool for one client’s specific job. 

That also makes it cheaper to run at scale, faster for that specific workload, while being tailor-made for the customer’s stack.

Needless to say, that approach is gaining a ton of traction.

In fiscal Q3 2025, Broadcom posted record sales of $15.95 billion, with AI semiconductor sales jumping 63% year over year to $5.2 billion. Additionally, it guided for Q4 AI revenue to clock in around the $6.2 billion mark as new programs ramp up.

It’s also important to understand the context.

Nvidia still holds the lion’s share of accelerator silicon at close to 80% and 90%, on the back of its CUDA software moat. 

Broadcom’s play, though, is more about the custom ASIC lane plus AI networking (Tomahawk Ultra/Tomahawk 6), which effectively stitches together robust clusters at an incredible scale.

Broadcom Q3 AI highlights (at a glance):

  • AI semi sales: $5.2 billion, +63% year-over-year; Q4 guide $6.2 billion.
  • XPU momentum: Custom accelerators now form the majority of AI sales, and the management cited growing hyperscaler demand and a fourth major win.
  • Networking edge: Shipping Tomahawk 6 and unveiling Tomahawk Ultra in pushing the envelope for AI data faster across clusters.
  • Customer pipeline: A new program rumored to be OpenAI with multi-billion-dollar orders, diversifying its current revenue base.
  • Outlook: Company guides for Q4 revenue to be at $17.4 billion on accelerating AI demand.

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