Tesla analyst unveils eye-popping stock price target | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

Tesla’s (TSLA) 2025 has been nothing short of a roller coaster that’s back on the upswing.

Following a choppy first half, the stock ripped higher in September, due to the mounting buzz around autonomy software updates and a wave of fresh analyst optimism.

Shares are up nearly 30% over the past month, pulling year-to-date returns back into the green as Wall Street debates demand heading into this week’s Q3 deliveries print.

That said, Wedbush’s Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull and hugely popular tech voice, made a jaw-dropping call late this week. His surprising note frames a new growth chapter, one he argues will re-rate the stock if key milestones line up.

Crucially, he talked about critical drivers beyond traditional carmaking, a thesis that, if correct, reshapes how investors value Tesla from here.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees Tesla’s next big move in AI and autonomy, not just cars.

Image source&colon; Pleul/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Wedbush lifts Tesla price target to $600, sees 36% upside

Wedbush’s Dan Ives just took his Tesla call up a gear, as he bumped his Street-high price target to $600 from $500 while reaffirming an outperform rating on the stock.

The note leans hard into AI, as Robotaxis start scaling from the Austin launch in June, along with a 2026 commercialization ramp for the Optimus humanoid robot. Ives also floated a head-turning best-case path to $2 trillion market cap by early 2026 and $3 trillion by year-end.

The target implies a hefty 36% upside from Friday’s $440.40 close.

More Tesla:

Ives’ language was blunt:

We are raising [our] price target on Tesla to $600, reflecting our view that an accelerated AI autonomous path is now on the horizon in 2026.

He contends that investors are still “underestimating the major transformation underway,” calling it the biggest growth chapter in Tesla’s rich history.

Under the hood, Wedbush sees Tesla’s story pivoting sharply beyond its popular electric vehicles.

The note zeroes in on the rapid buildout of the Robotaxi network over the next 12 months, along with the EV giant emerging as a robust software-and-automation platform, backed by recurring sales and SaaS-like margins.

He also points to the long-term mix shift from hardware to autonomy and robotics, which will help strengthen margins in the near term.

Dan Ives’ Tesla call:

Wedbush hikes Tesla target to $600, implying 36% upside from $440.40 Sept. 26 close.
Robotaxi rollout and Optimus robot are critical to the AI-driven growth thesis.
Ives sees Tesla shifting from auto OEM to software-and-automation platform.

Tesla set to post Q3 deliveries Oct. 2 as estimates rise

Tesla is expected to post Q3 2025 production and deliveries early Thursday, Oct. 2, a closely watched print following its recent rally.

Wall Street consensus sits near 447,000 vehicles, but multiple updated forecasts are in the 465,000-495,000 range, led by a late-quarter pull-forward as the $7,500 U.S. EV credit expires Sept. 30.

For context in Q2, Tesla produced over 410,000 cars and delivered more than 384,000 vehicles, down year-over-year but well below Q2 2024’s 444,000, as pricing and inventory dynamics impacted growth numbers. However, that sets a relatively lower bar for Q3 sequential improvement.

China has been the swing factor.

For instance, August retail sales hit 57,152, still down 10% year-over-year but well above July, and weekly insurance registrations surged in mid-to-late September (14,300 the week of Sept. 7 and 17,300 the week of Sept. 15-21).

Europe remained under duress (EU August sales were down 37% year-over-year), offset by a U.S. pull-forward ahead of the $7,500 federal EV credit’s expiration, a boost to Q3 that could potentially leave a demand air pocket in Q4.

However things end up, the market will see it as a test of Tesla’s EV business right now, even with analysts focusing on its AI and Robotaxi future.

Takeaways on Tesla performance:

Tesla Q3 deliveries due Oct. 2, with consensus at 447,000 and some forecasts as high as 495,000.
Q2 was soft: 384,000 delivered compared to over 410,000 produced, down substantially from 444,000 a year earlier.
China showed momentum: August sales 57,152 (down 10% year over year), with September weekly registrations rising to 17,000.
Europe lagged; U.S. saw a tax-credit rush before the $7,500 EV credit expired Sept. 30, a big boost for Q3, but a risk for Q4.