Tesla (TSLA) received a bullish indicator from Europe about 24 hours before releasing its third-quarter numbers, as deliveries recovered in some key regions on the continent.
Analysts expect Tesla to have strong deliveries this quarter, as the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit in September lifted sales across brands in the quarter.
“We think it’s possible this last quarter comes in at or above expectations and would be surprised to see some sort of large miss,” said Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management.
He says the tax credit may have helped create higher demand in the U.S. and Canada: “If you needed a car and were not considering an EV, you may have thought differently this time around.”
Tesla 2024 deliveries by region:
- China – 662,588
- U.S. – 617,618
- Europe – 372,434
- Canada – 46,314
- Rest of world – 135,272
European sales were down 10.3% year over year, and that trend has extended through much of the year, until September.
Tesla reports delivery numbers on Oct. 2.
Image source: Sullivan/Getty Images
Tesla deliveries begin to rebound in Europe
According to local data, Tesla’s delivery rebound may have extended from the U.S. to Europe in September.
Norway is the EV capital of the world, with more than 98% of the country’s September vehicle deliveries being zero-emission cars.
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Tesla was the top-selling vehicle by a wide margin, making up nearly 34% of all September deliveries. For the year, Tesla makes up 19% of all auto deliveries in the country. September sales were up 14.7%.
Spain is also a strong EV market. One in five sales in September was for either a pure electric or plug-in hybrid vehicle, doubling the figure from a year ago.
Tesla sales rose 9.5% year over year.
Tesla deliveries in Sweden dropped 84% year over year in August, but in September, Tesla represented the largest electric car brand, garnering 18% of the EV market.
Full September numbers across Europe won’t be available until later this month, but August numbers showed numerous segments where Tesla is struggling.
Tesla struggled to sell EVs in Europe in August
Earlier this year, Tesla reported its second straight quarter of falling revenue with a 12% year-over-year decline to $22.5 billion.
Shrinking sales in Europe drove some of that trend.
Tesla EU August struggles (registrations):
- France: -47.7%
- Sweden: -84%
- Denmark: -42%
- Netherlands: -50%
- Italy: -4.4%
Tesla EU August triumphs (registrations):
- Norway: +21.3%
- Portugal: +30%
- Spain: 161%
Piper Sandler raises Tesla price target ahead of deliveries
Analysts at Piper Sandler see Tesla as a long-term play, so while deliveries are important, there is a bigger picture for the company.
After visiting China, analysts led by Alexander Potter and Ben Johnson raised Tesla’s price target to $500 per share from $400 per share.
The firm sees Tesla’s artificial intelligence as light-years ahead of its competitors in China.
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“After meeting with Chinese EV makers, we can see why Elon Musk respects these ‘fast followers’ so much,” analysts Alexander Potter and Ben Johnson said in a note, according to Investing.com. “But when it comes to ‘real world’ AI, these companies look to Tesla for guidance – not the other way around.”
While Chinese competitors are building EVs that are at least as good, if not better, than Tesla’s models, Tesla still holds the edge on the tech side.
Piper Sandler expects Tesla to deliver 495,000 vehicles in the third quarter, a record for the company.
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