Thanksgiving, one of the most commercially charged holidays, is here, complete with Black Friday deals, turkey pardons, and the Macy’s parade.
And U.S. retailers are hoping for record sales this holiday season, despite trends of decreased spending indicated by The Conference Board’s latest Consumer Confidence survey.
Consumers are cautious, but the market is abuzz, and retail stocks continue to advance, showing promise ahead of the holiday season as people are expected to buy holiday gifts or stock up for the new year.
Labubu makerPop Mart saw its stock up 128% year to date.
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Consumer confidence plunges, but holiday spending may prove an exception
The latest release from The Conference Board showed that the U.S Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) plunged to 88.7 in November, down sharply from the 95.5 in October, the lowest reading recorded since spring.
A significant reason for the decline is that consumers are feeling the impact of tariffs in the form of increased prices, struggling with affordability, or still reeling from the extended government shutdown, which had them dip into their savings due to a lack of pay.
Yet, despite the pessimism, Black Friday and the holiday season may still deliver. According to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) latest report, a record 186.9 million consumers are expected to shop between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.
- Black Friday remains the most popular shopping day, with 70% of shoppers (130.4 million) expected to shop.
- The second-most-popular day is Cyber Monday, with 40% (73.9 million) of people expected to shop the Monday following Thanksgiving.
- Of the 36% (67 million) who are Saturday shoppers, 80% consider shopping a way to support local businesses (i.e., Small Business Saturday).
But NRF also projects holiday spending will surpass $1 trillion for the first time in November and December, “with sales predicted to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.”
And when it comes to holiday shopping, despite the obstacles, people have set budgets, and they are clear about what they want to buy.
Related: Scott Bessent has Thanksgiving message for inflation-weary Americans
This year’s top gifting categories, according to NRF, are:
- Clothing and accessories (50%)
- Gift cards (43%)
- Toys (32%)
The way people gain inspiration for gift ideas, however, is evolving, according to Reuters. The projected $253 billion in U.S. online sales will be driven by website visits and online searches, with AI playing a major role.
Consumers are also increasingly using chatbots to seek advice on holiday gifts.
Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade capitalizes on global trends
Tourism and event-driven spending remain robust as well, although major plans were disrupted due to the extended government shutdown, which led to many people canceling their vacation plans.
Consider the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Each year, more than 3.5 million people in NYC and 50 million-plus viewers at home watch the parade, making it a major tourist attraction and advertising platform.
This year, Macy’s intends to capitalize on worldwide trends, with the parade lineup significantly catering to global youth culture through K-pop and crowd favorite Labubu.
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This year’s Thanksgiving parade will feature performances from EJAE, Audrey Nuna, and Rei Ami, the vocalists behind the renowned girl group Huntrix from Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters.”
The film, which is officially set for a sequel in 2029, was Netflix’s most-watched original film to date, with over 236 million views in August.
As it gained five Emmy nominations this year, Netflix also collaborated with AMC to host a special sing-along viewing on Halloween.
The film, which fueled global fan engagement and broad merchandise demand, has sparked increased interest in the Macy’s parade. Additionally, it will feature a float with Pop Mart’s sensational design toy Labubu.
Yes, the same Labubu that you either had a hard time finding or whose popularity you couldn’t quite understand, given its ugly look.
However, according to PopMart, as reported by Reuters, it is already set to surpass $4 billion in revenue from plushies and related franchises. No one is safe from the dolls’ odd charm — even Walmart is selling them in stores over Thanksgiving.
The inclusion of these global hits in the parade, and by retailers in the form of gift options, has transformed Thanksgiving into a new hybrid holiday model, blending traditional consumerism with fan-driven engagement.
This means increased capitalization for brands and IP (intellectual Property) licensors who continue to fight inflation and expect cultural phenomena and traditions to offset economic uncertainties.