Redfin predicts major mortgage rate movement | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

The first week of each month is typically when the U.S. government issues its key labor market updates, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly Employment Situation report (often called the jobs report) and the weekly unemployment claims data from the Department of Labor.

With these major releases concentrated in the same period, it becomes an especially data-intensive stretch for both financial markets and policymakers.

But the first week of December 2025 presents some challenges.

“This is usually the week with lots of job market data, but the government shutdown has delayed both the JOLTS and jobs reports,” real estate technology company Redfin wrote on Dec. 1.

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) offers an in-depth look at labor market activity. It tracks measures such as job vacancies, hiring, resignations, and layoffs.

By analyzing these figures, businesses and economists gain insights into labor demand, workforce movement, and broader economic conditions.

Despite the delay in reporting of these key statistics, Redfin offered a prediction on movement in mortgage rates during the next couple weeks.

Redfin predicts mortgage rate Fed decision impact

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.31% on Dec. 1, according to Mortgage News Daily. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.80%.

“Rates fell last week as financial markets increasingly priced in a rate cut at next Wednesday’s Fed meeting, but an absence of recent jobs and inflation data makes this one particularly difficult to predict,” Redfin wrote.

But the real estate technology company offered a cautious forecast nonetheless:

“Mortgage rates may continue to bounce around this week ahead of the meeting, especially against a backdrop where President Trump is nearing a decision for the next Fed chair,” it suggested.

Redfin says housing market delistings increased

Home delistings rose 28% in September as sellers pulled their properties off the market rather than settling for lower prices, Redfin explained.

The share of homes removed from the market climbed to an unusually high level in September.
Many owners are pulling listings because they are sitting unsold, preferring not to accept discounted offers.
The rise in delistings has helped keep overall home prices from falling further.
Across the country, 5.5% of listings were withdrawn in September, the highest September figure in ten years.
Roughly one out of every five delisted homes eventually comes back on the market.
Homeowners with less than five years of tenure are the most likely to withdraw their listings.
Florida shows the greatest concentration of withdrawn and stagnant listings.

Redfin examines other data affecting economy

The real estate technology company also gave a preview of what to expect from other economic data for the week of Dec. 1.

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment report due Dec. 3 is projected to show little change for November, hovering near zero compared with October’s gain of 42,000.
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index, scheduled for release Dec. 5, is anticipated to come in around 2.8% year-over-year, consistent with its trend over the past year; this September data was delayed by the government shutdown.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey, also out Dec. 5, is expected to show minimal movement in December relative to November.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index, due on Dec. 3, is expected to show a modest improvement for November compared with October.

Redfin previews November economic data

Redfin reports that there will be no Consumer Price Index or unemployment rate data for October.

More on mortgages, housing market:

“Job creation data for October will still be collected and released along with the November jobs report on Dec. 18,” Redfin wrote. “With the government shutdown lasting through the first part of November, one remaining question is how November’s economic statistics (which will be released with a delay in December in many instances) will be affected.”

Upcoming economic statistics to expect

November inflation figures are based on a shorter collection window, limited to the latter part of the month, which may make the data more volatile.
Missing early November prices could skew results lower as holiday discounts appear later in the month.
Job creation data for October and November is unaffected by the shutdown since it comes from the establishment survey, but it reflects federal employee terminations under the deferred resignation program and the shortened holiday season due to a late Thanksgiving.
The November unemployment rate is being measured through a household survey conducted one week later than planned, though the impact on data quality should be minimal.