While most responsible people have already completed most of their holiday shopping, many others still haven’t updated their Amazon holiday carts.
And still, there are others who don’t have much money to spend this holiday season, as uncertainty about the U.S. economy also weighs on Americans’ spending habits.
Gallup’s initial measurement of U.S. holiday spending showed customers were expecting to spend an average of $1,007 on gifts this season. That is about in line with the historically elevated $1,014 that was predicted at this time last year, and up from $923 in 2023.
About a third of consumers (31%) expected to spend up to $499, while 18% said they will spend between $500 and $999, and 37% predict spending $1,000 or more.
As usual, the majority (56%) of those polled expect to spend about the same as they did the prior year, though this is slightly lower than the average of 60% since 2006.
At the same time, the 19% who said they’ll spend slightly more this year is above the long-term average of 14%. The 23% who say they’ll spend less is on par with the long-term average.
But that measurement was from back in October. And while there have been some positives for the U.S. economy, notably the reopening of the government, a new Gallup poll suggests that Americans have tightened their shopping budgets since then.
Although the majority of Americans expect to spend about the same on holiday gifts in 2025 as they did the prior year, on average, shoppers’ gift budgets have declined.
U.S. economic confidence drops to 17-month low, Gallup poll says
Thursday, December 11, marks exactly two weeks until Christmas Day, so last-minute shoppers have plenty of time to get their acts together.
However, there are signs that more Americans this year will stay on the sidelines altogether this holiday season.
U.S. consumer economic confidence dropped to a 17-month low in November, according to the latest Gallup poll.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index (ECI) fell seven points to -30 in November, its lowest reading since -35 in July 2024.
The ECI has a theoretical scale ranging from 100 to -100. The ECI had its all-time high since 1992 of +56 in January 2000 and an all-time low of -72 in October 2008.
Within the past five years, the index hit a high point of +41 in February 2020 with a low of -58 in June 2022.
Since the start of the year, the index has ranged from -14 to -22 throughout most of 2025 before dipping to -23 in October and -30 in November.
Holiday season shopping budgets decline by record amount
Anxiety about the economy has translated to tighter holiday spending budgets, according to the poll.
Americans, on average, expect to spend $778 on their holiday gifts, $229 lower than the October figures mentioned above.
Lowering spending expectations as the holiday season progresses is normal for the poll, but the change is usually under $100. The only other year when expected holiday spending fell this much between October and November was 2008, when the figure was $185.
And the change is spread out among both high- and low-income Americans.
- Americans in households earning $100,000 or more now predict spending $1,230 on holiday gifts, down from $1,479 in October and $1,578 in November 2024.
- Those in households earning less than $50,000 have cut their projected spending to $384, down from $651 in October and $607 last November.
- Middle-income earners currently predict spending an average of $842, similar to their October estimate of $847 and last year’s $839. Source: Gallup
U.S. shoppers have to battle inflation this holiday season
While inflation has declined from its pandemic-fueled high during the Biden administration, it remains a problem for U.S. consumers.
“You can say prices aren’t going up as much, but that doesn’t mean that people aren’t feeling those higher prices from the inflation we had two or three years ago,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Forbes last month.
U.S. inflation rate by month
- January: 3%
- February: 2.8%
- March: 2.4%
- April: 2.3% (Liberation Day April 2)
- May: 2.4%
- June: 2.7%
- July: 2.7%
- August: 2.9%
- September: 3%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August. On average, consumer prices for all goods were 3% higher than they had been the previous year.
Gasoline was 4.1% higher and energy was 1.5% more expensive. While the CPI report doesn’t mention tariffs once, analysts at Bank of America see import duties as playing a significant role in inflationary prices, CNBC reported.
Related: Millions of US drivers are at risk from this dangerous issue