Samsung’s profit blueprint resets Micron stock bets | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

Investors in Micron just got a clear, high-signal “read-through” from the other side of the Pacific. It doesn’t look like a warning shot; it appears more like a plan for how the AI memory boom will translate into substantial profits.

Samsung recently released early guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, implying a more than threefold increase in profit vs. Q4 2024 and that the company will do very well compared to Q3 2025, thanks to tighter memory markets and favorable pricing. That kind of spike doesn’t happen with normal demand for consumer devices. It’s the kind you get when memory, which is an important part of the modern AI stack, suddenly costs a lot of money.

Samsung hasn’t given out the segment data yet, but it’s clear that when the world’s biggest memory provider posts statistics like this, it usually indicates they have a lot of pricing power. And if that’s true, Micron doesn’t need Samsung to “name names” for the market to connect the dots to U.S. memory providers, especially the ones that are most affected by server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory demand from AI infrastructure spending.

One update from Samsung is changing how the market reads the next memory cycle

Photo by Anadolu on Getty Images

Samsung’s guidance suggests memory is doing the heavy lifting

Samsung didn’t break down the segments in the guidance release, but the math makes the point quite clear.

Samsung said that for the fourth quarter of 2025, it expects about 93 trillion Korean won in total revenue and about 20 trillion won in operational profit. Because of Korean disclosure requirements, the numbers show the middle of a revenue range of 92 trillion to 94 trillion won and an operating profit range of 19.9 trillion to 20.1 trillion won.

Samsung reported generating 86.06 trillion won in sales and 12.17 trillion won in operating profit during the third quarter of 2025. It made 75.79 trillion won in sales and 6.49 trillion won in operating profit in the fourth quarter of 2024.

If those guidance numbers hold, it’s a huge improvement over both last year and the previous quarter. Wall Street is already seeing it as a sign that the memory upcycle is growing hotter, not colder.

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Major news sites have linked the rise to stronger memory fundamentals and increasing demand for AI, with restricted supply supporting higher prices for DRAM, NAND, and HBM.

That matters because memory is no longer merely “a part.” Memory bandwidth is a limiting barrier for AI accelerators, and HBM in particular has become a high-margin war between Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

Why this is a big deal for Micron stock

For American investors, Samsung’s guide is less about the company itself and more about what it means for the whole pricing system.

Counterpoint has said that Q4 was a time when memory costs went up a lot. Several media have repeated the company’s estimate that memory prices went up by about 40% to 50% in Q4 2025, and they predict prices to keep going up in 2026.

Micron is one of the best ways to play that idea.

It sells DRAM to servers and PCs, NAND to storage, and it has been getting further into HBM as spending on AI infrastructure picks up speed. When the “pricing umbrella” gets bigger, Micron’s ability to make money tends to change quickly.

The price of Micron shares was about $345 recently. But the more relevant question is why investors have been ready to pay so much: when memory prices go up, operating leverage kicks in, and the profit ramp can look like it’s not going up in a straight line.

Financial impact on Micron

People are seeing Samsung’s Q4 guidance as a sign that memory prices will stay high through the end of 2025. This is important since Micron’s income statement tends to change quickly when DRAM and HBM prices go up.

The most recent results from Micron indicate the operating leverage that investors are interested in. Micron made $13.64 billion in sales, had a 56% gross margin, and had $6.14 billion in operating income in the first quarter of its fiscal year 2026. It made $8.41 billion in operational cash flow and $3.9 billion in adjusted free cash flow.

Important Micron “money” numbers to keep an eye on:

The next quarter’s revenue guidance is $18.7 billion, give or take $400 million.
The gross margin guidance says that GAAP is roughly 67% and non-GAAP is about 68%.
EPS guidance: around $8.19 GAAP and $8.42 non-GAAP
Why it’s important: The midpoint of the revenue range suggests about 37% growth from fiscal Q1, which usually means higher prices and a better mix (including more valuable AI memory).

The other side is the typical memory warning: the industry is cyclical, so prices can drop if supply catches up or demand slows down. But Samsung’s profits are going up, and third-party trackers say prices will stay high, so the short-term arrangement is still good for Micron’s margins and cash flow.

Buyers must realize that memory cycles don’t end quietly

Memory usually comes with a caution label.

The same causes that cause unexpected shortages can also stop when demand stops or capacity catches up. Even positive news has pointed out that the memory market has always been boom-and-bust. This is why “chasing” after a big run might be risky if the cycle changes.

There is also a second-order risk: rising chip prices can make it more expensive for device makers to make things, which might hurt demand for smartphones and other consumer devices. This is not good for the parts of Samsung’s business that aren’t the memory engine.

Still, Samsung’s Q4 guide is the kind of data item that tends to change expectations across the board. This is because it shows that strong prices are already leading to significant profits for the biggest companies.