Goldman Sachs resets Nvidia stock forecast after earnings | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

Goldman Sachs didn’t revamp Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock price target post-earnings, but it bumped something else that matters just as much.

After another blowout quarter with its Q4 earnings on Feb. 25, the AI bellwether cleared yet another high bar.

However, the big bank’s analysts reiterated a buy rating while keeping their $250 price target intact. Goldman did, however, raise its earnings estimates by nearly 2% on average and said its 2026 projections are hovering well above Wall Street expectations.

Since reporting earnings, Nvidia’s stock is down 9.4% to $177.19 as of Feb. 27 (latest trade), according to Nvidia’s investor relations page.

When I last covered Nvidia on Feb. 21, the stock closed at $189.82 in my piece on veteran analyst Dan Niles, who put Nvidia and Broadcom front and center on his AI stock buy list in an interview with Fox Business.

Nvidia’s stock slide comes after a quarter in which it posted $68.1 billion in sales, topping expectations, while its Q1 guidance of $78 billion blew past the Street’s estimates.

Also, for AI-focused investors, the strength in data center sales, which reached up to $62.3 billion, highlights where Nvidia’s real growth engine is operating right now.

It’s important to note that over the past four quarters, Nvidia has comfortably blown past both top and bottom-line estimates by a wide margin, according to Seeking Alpha.

Also in recent weeks, with 13F filings rolling in, I’ve covered major hedge funds, including Ken Griffin’s Citadel, adding $2.19 billion worth of Nvidia stock, and Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater adding $253 million to its position.

It appears that Nvidia’s post-earnings selloff has become something of a habit, and TheStreet tech expert Vuk Zdinjak described the dynamic in his latest piece.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang addressed the situation during an all-hands meeting following the company’s Q3 earnings, according to Business Insider, Zdinjak wrote.

Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs believes the broader shift is forward-looking, resetting expectations for what comes next.

Nvidia guidance beats expectations as Goldman revises forecasts higher.

Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

Nvidia earnings snapshot (fiscal Q4 2026)

Headline numbers: Revenue $68.13 billion (+73% year over year), beating consensus ($66.21 billion, LSEG). Non-GAAP EPS $1.62 (+82% YoY) beat ($1.53, LSEG). GAAP EPS $1.76 (+98% YoY).
Guidance: For fiscal Q1 2027, Nvidia guided revenue to $78.0 billion ±2% (about $76.44 billion-$79.56 billion), compared with the Street expectation around $72.78 billion. GAAP gross margin 74.9% and non-GAAP 75.0% (±50 bps).
Key segment drivers: Data Center did the heavy lifting: $62.3 billion revenue (+75% YoY, +22% QoQ) — nearly 91% of total company revenue this quarter.
Professional Visualization $1.3 billion (+159% YoY, +74% QoQ), with Nvidia attributing strength linked with Blackwell demand.
Balance sheet and capital returns: Ended the quarter with $62.56 billion in cash/cash equivalents/marketable securities; free cash flow $34.90 billion in Q4 (vs $15.52 billion a year ago). Nvidia reported $3.82 billion in Q4 share repurchase outflows and $243 million in dividends paid; for the full fiscal year, it returned $41.1 billion to shareholders.
Sources: Nvidia FY26 Q4 earnings release, Reuters, Business Insider

Wall Street price targets for Nvidia stock (post-earnings)

Bank of America: $300
Citigroup: $300
JPMorgan: $265
Morgan Stanley: $260
Goldman Sachs: $250 Source: Investing, Tipranks, Yahoo Finance

Goldman sees a clearer path for Nvidia stock to outperform

Goldman’s post-earnings takeaway on Nvidia is that the next few months have a cleaner set of stock-moving catalysts than we’ve seen in past quarters.

Consequently, Goldman bumped its EPS estimates by a considerable 2% on average, on the back of a stronger sales forecast and ongoing strength in Data Center.

Additionally, the bank bumped its forward outlook higher (raising total sales estimates for 2026E/2027E/2028E and nudging gross-margin assumptions modestly higher).

More Nvidia:

The core pillar behind the bank’s bullishness is on the assumption that hyperscaler capex still has plenty of room to surprise.

Goldman forecasts upside revisions to 2026 spending and feels that early 2027 growth signals will likely become more visible.

That cuts against the AI doom-and-gloom narrative, where the thinking is that the demand curve isn’t as fleshed out as the market is currently pricing in.

The other aspect to consider is that the “AI labs” are now becoming a far more potent demand pillar.

Goldman specifically points to “non-traditional customers” such as OpenAI and Anthropic, saying that, with funding rounds complete, Mr. Market will likely gain greater visibility into spending patterns through 2027.

Here’s the lowdown on these deals.

OpenAI: Nvidia is reportedly finalizing an investment linked to OpenAI’s massive funding round, pegging Nvidia’s participation at around $30 billion (after earlier chatter, a whopping $100 billion), reported Reuters.
Anthropic: Nvidia committed up to $10 billion, along with a major compute deal that kicks off as much as 1 gigawatt on Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems.
Meta: Meta signed a major multiyear partnership for “millions” of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, along with Nvidia CPUs and Spectrum-X networking, with Vera CPU deployments slated to begin in 2027.

On top of that, the bank’s analyst believes Nvidia will solidify its competitive edge as fresh AI models trained on Blackwell begin to roll out.

CEO Huang gushed about Blackwell on Nvidia’s Q4 earnings call.

Nvidia stock returns vs. the S&P 500

1W: Nvidia -6.65% versus S&P 500-0.44%
1M: Nvidia -6.01% versus S&P 500 -1.43%
6M: Nvidia -2.43% versus S&P 500 6.13%
YTD: Nvidia -4.99% versus S&P 500 0.49%
1Y: Nvidia 47.47% versus S&P 500 17.35%
3Y: Nvidia 653.97% versus S&P 500 72.74%
5Y: Nvidia 1,191.99% versus S&P 500 80.49% Source: Seeking Alpha