Bank of America made a bold call on Marvell Technology (MRVL) Friday morning, flipping its rating from neutral to buy and lifting its price target to $110 from $90. The move came hours after Marvell reported blowout fiscal fourth-quarter results that sent shares surging more than 16%.
The upgrade arrived at just the right moment. Marvell shares had spent much of the past year under pressure, trading well below their 52-week high of $102.77. Now, Wall Street is paying close attention again.
Analyst Vivek Arya, who covers semiconductors at Bank of America, pointed to two specific catalysts for the upgrade: Marvell’s growing strength in AI optical connectivity and sharply improved visibility on custom chip programs with both Microsoft and Amazon.
What triggered the Bank of America upgrade on Marvell
Marvell’s March 5 earnings call gave Arya and his team a reason to get more aggressive. The company reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $8.19 billion, a record, up 42% year over year. Fourth-quarter revenue hit $2.219 billion, coming in above the midpoint of Marvell’s own guidance.
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Non-GAAP earnings per share for the quarter reached $0.80, a penny above the Wall Street consensus estimate of $0.79. Shares spiked to around $90 in Friday trading, up roughly 20% from Thursday’s close of $75.68.
Arya noted that the earnings call significantly raised his confidence in three things: Marvell’s position in AI optical connectivity, the trajectory of its Amazon XPU (custom processor) transition, and the potential scale of its upcoming Microsoft chip program.
Key numbers from Marvell’s Q4 fiscal 2026 report:
- Q4 revenue: $2.219 billion, up 22% year over year
- Full-year fiscal 2026 revenue: $8.195 billion, up 42% year over year
- Data center revenue in Q4: $1.65 billion, a quarterly record
- Non-GAAP EPS for the full year: $2.84, up 81% year over year
- Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue guidance: $2.4 billion, well above prior Wall Street estimates Source: Marvell’s Q4 earnings release
Marvell’s custom silicon business is growing fast
The data center segment, which accounted for 74% of total revenue, is where the real story is being written. Custom silicon revenue scaled from near zero to $1.5 billion in just one fiscal year, doubling in fiscal 2026. CEO Matt Murphy said on the earnings call that custom revenue is expected to grow more than 20% in fiscal 2027 and at least double again in fiscal 2028.
Marvell’s suite of products is broad. Its 1.6T optical interconnects entered volume production in the second half of fiscal 2026, and the company expects that revenue to ramp very rapidly this year. Data center switching revenue surpassed $300 million in fiscal 2026 and is expected to exceed $600 million in fiscal 2027.
Murphy told analysts that design wins in fiscal 2026 hit an all-time record, with bookings “accelerating at a record pace” heading into fiscal 2027. He said the company is still in what he described as the early stages of a strong multiyear growth cycle.
Marvell’s key AI data center growth drivers:
- Custom XPU silicon: Expected to grow 20%+ in fiscal 2027, at least double in fiscal 2028
- 1.6T optical interconnects: Entered production in H2 fiscal 2026, ramping rapidly
- Data center switching: Forecast to exceed $600 million in fiscal 2027
- XPU attach and CXL: Expected to double each year, potentially reaching $1 billion Source: Marvell’s Q4 earnings release
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Marvell’s fiscal 2027 and 2028 outlook is eye-popping
The guidance Marvell offered for the years ahead gave bulls plenty of fuel. The company raised its outlook to grow more than 30% year over year, approaching $11 billion. It then went further, projecting fiscal 2028 revenue of approximately $15 billion, roughly $2 billion higher than the outlook it had provided in December 2025.
Murphy credited the upward revision to better visibility and concrete customer commitments, particularly in the interconnect business. He said the forecast is based on demand the company is seeing right now, not speculative pipeline.
Non-GAAP EPS for fiscal 2028 is expected to reach well over $5, a figure that would represent a dramatic step-up from the $2.84 reported in fiscal 2026.
Wall Street is rallying around MRVL stock
Bank of America was not alone in turning more bullish. According to analyst reports, JPMorgan raised its price target on Marvell to as high as $135. Susquehanna holds a Buy rating with a $140 target. Rosenblatt also has a $140 target following the earnings release, and both Stifel and Wolfe Research are at $130.
The average analyst price target across 38 firms stands at approximately $113, representing roughly 49% upside from Thursday’s closing price. The consensus remains firmly in Buy territory.
Bank of America’s Arya called Marvell’s current valuation compelling, noting the stock trades at roughly 16 times calendar year 2027 estimated earnings, compared to peers trading at closer to 29 times. The firm sees the $110 target as conservative relative to its bull case, with a discounted cash flow model pointing toward $130 if fiscal 2028 earnings projections hold.
For investors watching the AI semiconductor space, Marvell’s earnings and the flood of analyst upgrades that followed are a signal that the company’s quiet build in custom silicon and optical interconnects is starting to show up in the numbers in a very big way. The question now is whether the stock can hold its gains as expectations reset sharply higher.