All NewsMarch 11, 2026

Investors will fall for anything: As Iran War declared “complete,” it continues anyway

Last Friday, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said that it was “just the beginning.” Yesterday, President Donald Trump said it was “very complete, pretty much.”

So, what is the status of the Iran conflict right now? Based on a remarkable power hour to end Monday, it looks like the market has decided the war is over. Running with the Trump “complete” headline, traders quickly started to price in a cessation of the conflict. U.S. stock indexes rose, and oil prices fell. The trend continued on a bouncy Tuesday for stocks, which we covered in our daily live blog:

What happened to “trust, but verify?” As the U.S. seems to have found a convenient offramp, it introduces new questions about the nature of its engagement in the region. How quickly can it readily pack up and leave? With missiles and drones are still flying, and in some cases, critical infrastructure in the crosshairs, it might be time for investors to think critically.

What did Trump mean?

That is the priceless question we’re still working out, but as part of his remarks, Trump insinuated that the conflict with Iran would end soon on the basis that they, “have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.”

But despite that, Trump went on to contradict his earlier comments about the completion of his week-long military operation, adding that he had “someone in mind to replace Khamenei” and was “thinking about taking” over the Strait of Hormuz.

Both comments stand with potentially greater weight than Trump’s earlier comments about the completeness of the conflict, because while Iran might be hammered, it still packs a punch capable of disrupting global trade.

Investors are clearly not including that calculus in their trading.

Iran chooses chaos

Once Iran heard all this, it had a government spokesperson lined up to respond. In our Stock Market Today liveblog yesterday, we covered comments made by a spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who called Trump’s various comments “nonsense” and doubled down on their retaliation.

Ominously enough, the IRGC threatened that security in the region was “for everyone or for no one,” a point it continues to echo. And while the IRGC clearly has an incentive to talk its book, it would be generous to assume that they can’t cause trouble.

Just an example: Per the University of Albany’s Christopher Clary, Iran has demonstrated a much higher hit rate on the neighboring United Arab Emirates (UAE) today. The 25.7% hit rate on Mar. 10 is an “all-time high since the onset of hostilities.”

Today, even after a week of attacks from two of the greatest military powers on the planet, Iran continues to keep the all-important Strait of Hormuz under lock and key. CBS and CNN even reports that U.S. intelligence is worried the country is looking to deploy “mines” in the critical shipping port.

So if the conflict is “complete,” how come there’s still fighting?

Back at square one

Crucially, the longer that the Strait remains shut, the longer trade in the entire Middle East is disrupted. The initial reaction was understandable; there is a lot to worry about with the ongoing blockade of Middle Eastern goods. It doesn’t just threaten price shocks which can reaccelerate inflation, but entire markets.

Financial markets might be being cavalier about these impacts because, at the end of the day, markets offer abstraction from reality. As quickly as U.S. oil ran to nearly $120/barrel when futures opened Sunday night, they quickly brushed back to sub-$80, even as the situation had not materially changed.

This abstraction also applies in conversations about the impact on the real economy. Many investors have weighed possible impacts from the closure of the Strait in their stock market math, otherwise the Russell 2000 would not have seen a barrage of selling this week amid new inflation worries.

However, plenty of smart people assume insurance on ships and escorts for tankers is enough to end the disruption. Unfortunately, it’s simply not: Whether products make it out of the Middle East has serious implications on energy, food, and industrial markets (among a litany of other possible supply shocks).

Related: It’s not just rising oil prices you’ll have to worry about if Iran conflict continues

That’s all to say, short of some diplomatic miracle or a ceasefire, it seems like the conflict at hand is far from “complete,” especially as the navigation of critical shipping corridors like the Strait of Hormuz remains so tenuous.

Sure, for now, we have great tools like Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) to stabilize oil prices. People forget that we’re looking at a nearly 20 million barrel per day (bpd) supply shock. And despite that, oil is falling right now as if the conflict is over.

But what about the industrial chemicals important in semiconductor fabrication? What about fertilizer to grow crops? What if the conflict doesn’t completely cease this week, or the next one, or the next one?

It’s a question worth asking, especially given how quickly investors have fallen into line on the new narrative. We might be looking at a relief rally.

Getting your hopes up (for nothing)?

Investors could be forgiven for being fooled once, but twice, thrice, and many more times? Maybe it’s the algorithmic trading machine, “buy the dip” retail traders, or easily deceived institutions, but there has come a remarkable tendency to trust this administration on all things, even while ignoring almost everything that it says.

Analysts were shocked when this admin imposed tariffs, even though Trump had said he would during his campaign. They were shocked again when he carried out a hardline immigration agenda, something he also committed to during his campaign. They were blindsided by Iran, and now, they cling to the promise that we are pulling out.

Perhaps the President is unique in his ability to convince people of things. Or maybe it just goes to show how smart people are struggling to digest information in the evolving media environment, where the lines between reality and talking points end up increasingly blurred.

But to that end, investors have an opportunity to take Trump at his word. In recent days, he has said that the conflict could be over in 4 to 5 weeks or go “far longer.” In either case, investors would do well to simply ask: “how?”

While the White House might well intend to put an end to this conflict sooner rather than later, we still have to figure there’s some sort of cost. The war can’t simply be over.

Are investors putting too much faith in those estimates, especially given the state of affairs right now? After all, one can go on social media and, as the highly online say, “monitor the situation” for themselves. Those who have been know that the conflict is not looking very “complete.”

I guess we’ll see in three weeks.