Transcript:

Caroline WoodsJoining me now, Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki. Ross, great to have you here. Thanks so much for joining us.

Ross GerberThanks for having me.

Caroline WoodsSo, Ross, we had that impressive reversal yesterday. Stocks staged another rebound today. I’m looking at green arrows across the board here. Is the market right to breathe a sigh of relief. What do you think?

Ross GerberWell, I think obviously whatever Trump says the market’s sort of reacting to. And and obviously the continued selling in the markets was something that brought Trump’s attention. So he wanted to reset expectations about the conflict to try to boost the stock market. But it doesn’t change the reality of oil prices and how it’s going to affect the economy and how it’s, you know, going to affect the inflation numbers and then interest rates and, and all the effects of of these decisions.

Ross GerberYou, you know, so that does put pressure on stocks. And there’s no way around it.

Caroline WoodsSo stepping back, do you look at this as just a short term scare for investors. The geopolitical risk obviously this spiked oil prices. Or does it actually change the bull case for stocks this year.

Ross GerberWell I think does change the case for stocks I don’t know if it changes it out of a bull case because we still have really good fundamentals to the backdrop to the market. I think it’s more about the valuation multiple that the market has was a premium kind of price to perfection. And now we’re clearly not in perfection.

Ross GerberSo the market actually price to a much more you know, reasonable multiple which which actually can bring stocks down you know without earnings going down. So, you know, if the war ends in a reasonable amount of time, which is let’s say less than three months, obviously the long term effects of this are wildly positive. So investors have to look at the other side of the coin, not just the short term economic implications, but how about the long term economic implications of a free Middle East without Iran is a menace, is wildly bullish.

Ross GerberSo, you know, I just don’t see a reason to sell stocks because of this war. If we’re ever going to bomb anybody, Iran is probably the right people to be bombing.

Caroline WoodsOkay. But as we think about buying the dip and the potential bottom being in, how do you think about that with the current market, especially given the fact that we’ve experienced so much volatility in so many down days? But if you take a look, the S&P is basically flat now year to date only down about 2/10 of 1%.

Caroline WoodsDo you. So do you think that given the fact that even oil is sharply off its highs but is still up significantly year to date, which can have implications, does that mean it could all get worse for the market before it gets better?

Ross GerberWell and right. And I wouldn’t say that we found a bottom in the market by any means. You know, for us, you know, we look at around 6000 at the S&P would be a great price for us to buy. You know, that’s the price. If there is a correction that we think the market will get to. Certainly we’d be buyers if stocks go down, you know, five, ten, 15%.

Ross GerberNor would we think that that’s, you know, abnormal to have a correction in times like this. So markets have actually perform pretty well considering the uncertainty that’s been created through this war. But I think a lot of that is predicated on the idea that what this looks like after the war, as I said, could be one of the paradigm shifts in what we call in the old days, the axis of evil, that we’re taking out one of the stools of one of the leg of the stools really weakens the other evil players, which are Russia, North Korea and now China has been added to this axis.

Ross GerberSo I think there’s a lot of positive that can come out of this if they manage it right. The problem is the people managing the war aren’t the smartest people in the world. And very rarely do wars go your way. So, you know, time is of the essence. The longer this goes on, the worse it is for America.

Ross GerberAnd Iran knows that the longer this goes on, the better it is for them. So that’s why they’re pushing so hard to to hit Iran hard and get results quickly.

Caroline WoodsOkay. You mentioned around the 6000 level on the S&P 500 that you would be a buyer. What are you doing now? You just wait on the sidelines. Are you putting any money to work right now?

Ross GerberTruthfully, we’ve been taking money out of the market more than putting in in the sense of our allocations have been shifting more conservative and more diversified. So, no, we’re not being more aggressive. We’re still always buyers of stocks because we have new money and such. And, you know, relative to our allocation, we’re buyers. But, you know, I’m cautioning investors this is the time to be defensive, to obviously have part of your portfolio invested for the future.

Ross GerberAnd and that’s always a part of it. And and whether that’s 50% of your money or 75% of your money or 90% of your money depends on your risk tolerance. But if you’re somebody that was running your accounts, let’s say, 75% in stocks, it’s not a bad idea to look at lowering that allocation right now because of all the risks out there.

Ross GerberYou want to have the ability. That’s what I’ve done with my ETF. GK is we’ve built a little bit of a cash, cushion in here. So if there is a decline now we’re still buyers of stocks, but relative to our overall allocation, it’s lower.

Caroline WoodsOkay. So I have some of your highest conviction ideas that you sent over. I want to run through those. And then I want to know if if these are names that you are waiting to buy or that you would, buy. Now, the first one is Netflix, which did have a dip to buy until recently. It’s actually done quite well more recently, although is still off what, almost 30% from the highs.

Caroline WoodsSo tell us why you like Netflix.

Ross GerberWell, now, film has been a core holding for a very long time. And when they started down this merger pathway, we were very disappointed with their desire to be involved with Warner Brothers, because it’s not a great asset and it’s never made anybody money despite five separate owners. So when and nor does Netflix really want to release movies in the theater.

Ross GerberSo, you know, we saw this as a departure from their business model and problematic. So we sold some of our stock in in the higher prices. And then it declined too much. And then we added it back around the $75 range. But as the tea winds shifted, we became very confident that Netflix would walk away from this deal, make billions of dollars and avoid a disaster, and position themselves to be the dominant player in Hollywood.

Ross GerberSo as Paramount’s guidance swallows up. You know, so much debt that they are not going to be able to be competitive in the future. So in a way, it almost like took out competitors from Netflix instead of adding a competitor, because Netflix got them to overpay by two times what Warner Brothers was even worth. So we still see Netflix as a great opportunity, and we’re buyers of the stock.

Caroline WoodsYeah okay. Next up Eli Lilly one that’s down about 6% year to date. Tell us why you like this one.

Ross GerberWell I like is is a nice word I love this stock. You know they are changing the world for a much better place through their GLP one drugs. And we’re just about a month away from getting approval for the pill and the GLP one pills, which started with Novo, a couple months ago, have been wildly popular. And the Lilly pills even better than the Novo pill.

Ross GerberAnd it basically it’s a once a day pill. You can take it at any point in the day, and it cut your diet and you lose weight. I mean, this is like we mean, it’s like a dream for people. I think for generations to be able to take a pill and lose weight and with obesity being a massive problem in America and globally, this is a wonderful step in the right direction.

Ross GerberBut even better, they have this new drug, which is simply called GLP three, which is coming out next year, which is way better than the current versions of weight loss drugs. And I’m really, really effective. So everybody in Hollywood is already taking this illegally already. And and that’s why you don’t see a lot of overweight people on the TV shows anymore.

Ross GerberBut but essentially this combination, along with their other drugs, puts them in the pole position. And their main competitor, Novo Nordisk, is extremely poorly run. So they’re they’re not only a better company, they’re a better management and better drugs. So we expect Lilly to dominate this market for years to come.

Caroline WoodsOkay. The inside scoop from LA with GLP three is all right. Here’s one that the market certainly loves this year. Micron shares are up more than 40% in 2026. You like that one. You also like Nvidia. Would you be a buyer of both here.

Ross GerberYeah. In fact this is probably one of the things that I think is so crazy about the stock market right now is how mispriced Nvidia and Micron are. Even micron more than Nvidia. I mean there’s like this continuous doubt about the future of AI despite everybody diving in and using AI at every major company in the world right now.

Ross GerberYou know, it’s like it’s so funny how in one breath everybody was like, oh my God, AI’s changing the financial industry. Oh my God, what’s going to happen? And then the other breath, they’re like, well, you know maybe these chip estimates are too aggressive. You know. And I’m like, we are at the beginning of what this is going to be.

Ross GerberAnd the valuations are just wrong with micron because there’s just no acceptance that their earnings are going to go from like $8 a share to like 30 plus dollars a share. And so like if you just do simple math at $30 a share and 15 times earnings, you know, micron is still undervalued. And that and 15 times earnings seems absurd for a chip company growing by hundreds of percent.

Ross GerberAnd then with Nvidia now trading at a for multiple of under 20, where its long term PE has been around 40 to 45 for over a decade. You know if Nvidia makes their numbers this year the stock has tremendous upside.

Ross GerberSo, you know, the doubt about these numbers creates an opportunity for investors. If you believe in AI Nvidia and Micron are the two players that benefit the most from infrastructure build out. And it just seems like like there’s the market just has mispriced these stocks currently because of doubts about something that everybody’s all in on. So it’s a huge opportunity I think.

Caroline WoodsThis isn’t on your list, but I have to ask you about it because I think every conversation we’ve ever had had to involve Tesla. You’ve been I know you’ve been cautious at Tesla is about 20% off the highs right now. Would you be a buyer here or are you still in the.

Ross GerberThat I’m still a.

Caroline WoodsPositive.

Ross GerberKaren I think I think Tesla has got big problems in front of it. You know, Elon is 100% focused on space right now and trying to get that money for x AI and go public. Tesla, you know, is struggling in all areas of their business now other than battery storage, which is really the stand out in their business is storage, which is growing.

Ross GerberI mean, really great business that they have, but they’ve given up on the EV business. They basically don’t care about selling cars anymore. And and consumers don’t like Elon as it is, but their lack of focus, advertising or any real attempt to sell cars ultimately will hurt them greatly because that’s their cash flow business, you know? And by just sacrificing this on the hope of the robotaxi, because we know the robots far off into the future, and we’re not sure whether there’s a use case for that robot yet.

Ross GerberWe’ve seen these videos of robots folding clothes and stuff, but it’s definitely not as effective as a human. And what it turns out is humans are really effective at many things, and that’s why we’ve existed for you know, millions of years. So it turns out that maybe this robotics thing may or may not work out to the economic benefit that they hope, but we won’t know for many years into the future.

Ross GerberSo they expect the company to be basically an autonomous Uber. And if you look at what the value of Uber is and you times it by for it still doesn’t make any number that Tesla has on a valuation basis make any sense. So I just just show me how the numbers make sense. Now, it doesn’t matter what the stock is in my mind from a financial perspective, the stock is worth like 200 bucks at best.

Ross GerberSo, you know I just think it’s a tough stock to own. And and I get because I have clients who want to own and I get there. They believe in Elon in this vision of the future. And I’m not saying to them not to believe in that. I just don’t believe in the economics of that future. And it has to be proven to me, and it hasn’t yet.

Caroline WoodsOkay. All right. We’re just about out of time. But before we let you go, we want to play a rapid fire game of this or that with you. Ross, are you ready?

Ross GerberYeah.

Caroline WoodsAll right, here we go. Stock’s bottom in. Or more pain ahead.

Ross GerberMore pain ahead.

Caroline WoodsBuy the dip or stay defensive.

Ross GerberIs the dip. Now if this is the dip I’m staying defensive.

Caroline WoodsBut when we see S&P 6000 in your view that’s what you’re buying.

Ross GerberYou are pushing my chips.

Caroline WoodsYeah US markets are international markets. International markets surging oil short term scare or market killer.

Ross GerberShort term scare.

Caroline WoodsInflation transitory spike or a structural problem.

Ross GerberOh. I’m going to have to say we’re starting to get more to our problem. You know, it’s you know, the Trump policies are all inflationary.

Caroline WoodsOkay. Recession in 2026. Yes or no? No rate cut in March. Yes or no?

Ross GerberNo.

Caroline WoodsYou’re one must own stock for 2026.

Ross GerberWell I just gave you 3 or 4. But if I had to own just one, you know, God, it’s hard to bet against Nvidia and Jensen. Yeah.

Caroline WoodsOkay. You’re one must avoid stock for 2026.

Ross GerberOh, must avoid is a big term I would say. And I’ll I’ll put this out there Berkshire Hathaway avoid.

Caroline WoodsBecause of Buffett being gone.

Ross GerberThat Buffett arrows over and and able. What he’s trying to do is kind of hard. You know this is sort of a and a creation of a different, century. And and the modern century isn’t going to be kind to all these businesses. So they got to break up Berkshire Hathaway and sell off the parts they’ll get. Oh, that’s the only way they’ll get full value out of the stock.

Caroline WoodsA beaten down software stock you’d buy right now.

Ross GerberA beaten down stock. And the stock that I like to buy right now is this genius sports. It’s my small cap loser right now. GE and I, it’s trading about 550 a share. It’s in the sports gambling and marketing business. And and they made an acquisition on the street in like. But it’s not a bad acquisition. The stock got hammered.

Caroline WoodsIt’s cheap high right a beaten a beaten down software stock you would buy right now.

Ross GerberYou know, that’s a question I get a lot of and and I don’t like a lot of them, you know. So that’s that’s a tough one. I would say ServiceNow has the best opportunity of the software stocks to recover.

Caroline WoodsAll right. Down more than 20% so far this year. Better bet for the next decade. AI or biotech.

Ross GerberIt’s I 100% I mean, biotech is always good, but AI is is clearly the theme for the next decade.

Caroline WoodsBest investment advice amid all of this market volatility. Not a this or that hurdle.

Ross GerberYou know hold on for dear life. Buy great stocks and hold them forever. I’m 55 years old, you know last month and I’ve been doing this since I was a kid. I’m buying technology stocks and holding them forever is the way to wealth. It’s not complicated. It’s not hard. It’s super easy. Just buy these stocks and hold them forever.

Ross GerberNo matter what they do, they’ll go down 50, maybe more percent at certain times. But over time, this is the way to wealth.

Caroline WoodsAll right. I have to ask hold Bitcoin to.

Ross GerberThe I own bitcoin. I’ve owned it for a long time. And I don’t think this is the time that Bitcoin is going to go up a lot. But in the having in a couple of years it’ll go up again. And and I think over time Bitcoin is a you know it’s a good thing to own like gold okay.

Caroline WoodsAnd just finally one sentence to sum up how you’re feeling about the market in 2026.

Ross GerberVery concerned about valuations relative to inflation and political, upheaval.

Caroline WoodsBut overall bullish in the longer term.

Ross GerberOverall I’m very bullish because what we see among our clients and in businesses in general, there are lots of people making money and having savings and good jobs. There are a lot of jobs in this country if you’re willing to do hard work, like building homes and like just physical jobs and there’s a lot of opportunity with technology and new companies doing all kinds of interesting and fun and exciting things and all types of industries right now.

Ross GerberSo, so the economy is really good. It’s really more like a situation that for us to screw up more than we have a bad situation that we need to improve. So, so in general, I think we’re in a changing economy because of the different demands in the workforce, let’s say, for AI versus healthcare and laying off, let’s say, white collar workers with lack of experience versus huge demand for nurses, for example.

Ross GerberSo our economy is changing, but it’s still a very, very good one and extremely dynamic with lots of innovation. So so I’m very bullish on America overall. It’s just we have a political upheaval. And policies that are detrimental to the country regarding tariffs, inflation and such.

Caroline WoodsAll right. Well we’ll check back in with you if we actually do get that buying opportunity. Russ Gerber CEO Kawasaki. Always a pleasure. Thank you so much for joining us.

Ross GerberYeah, thanks for having me.