I don’t know how much anyone believes any of this.

On the dawn of this war, Trump was saying they were planning for negotiations and Marco Rubio was going to the Middle East. That this news was also leaked suggests that it was deliberately leaked.

There has been a kneejerk lower in oil on this but that’s from the highs of the day. Just before the headlines, WTI was up $4.31 to $98.77 so this could just be an effort to cool pump prices for the weekend.

The report says:

The Trump administration is signaling to allies that it has no immediate plans for a ground invasion of Iran, even as it deploys thousands of troops to the Middle East, people familiar with the matter said.

The people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, cautioned that President Donald Trump could change his mind at any moment or go ahead with an attack. They said the troops could serve a variety of roles, including to help with evacuations of American citizens but also to create a sense of strategic ambiguity about US intentions.

A US Marine unit was pulled from Japan and should be arriving in the Middle East now while another was deployed from California and should arrive in mid-April or sooner.

The ground troops could be a feint or could give Trump optionality if needed. At the moment, the US appears to be pursuing the negotiations route but it’s not clear how willing Iran is to offer any concessions, and has now publicly said it wants control over Hormuz.

Iran may also be seeing the rising price of oil and falling stock markets and calculating that could put additional pressure on Trump to give in to their demands. The S&P 500 was last down 1.1% and the Nasdaq hit a six-month low today.

A separate report just crosses cites an Israeli media source and says operations may continue for another four weeks. That’s a timeline that truly strains the global energy market should Hormuz remain closed, and given that it will take time to restart production.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.