• India signs New Zealand free trade deal as Modi accelerates global FTA push
• Preview: Bank of Japan rate decision knife-edge, Japan inflation runs hotter than expected
• Citi says oil flow disruption could continue, Brent could hit US$150 / barrel
• China industrial profits surge at fastest pace since September in boost for economy
• Iran proposes Hormuz deal without nuclear talks in bid to break US negotiation deadlock
• People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.8579 (vs. estimate at 6.8282)
• Heads up for Japan market holiday this week, and then three the following week
• China imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surge
• Trump’s 60 Minutes interview has nothing on his war on Iran so far
• Goldman Sachs raises Q4 2026 oil forecasts. Mid East output loss drive big inventory draw
• US futures (Globex) are open. Oil up, stocks down on US-Iran talks stalling
• Iran’s FM said had discussion with Oman on ways to ensure safe transit in Hormuz Strait
• Reports a cargo ship has been attacked south of Bab al-Mandab Strait. Second front opening
• An hour after the Globex open Trump will be speaking in an interview on 60 Minutes
• Northern Japan early morning earthquake. M6.1
• Reports that Iran presents three-phase peace framework, with nuclear talks held to last
• Monday open FX (unlike the closed Strait of Hormuz). Indicative rates 27 April 2026
• Trump: Iran war’s end will come very soon and it will be victorious
• Newsquawk Week in Focus: Fed, BoJ, BoE, ECB, BoC, US PCE, GDP and ISM mfg. PMI
• Trump cancels Pakistan trip for Kushner and Witkoff
• Pakistan talks: Iran delivered both their demands and reservations about US demands

At a glance:

• Oil opened higher on Globex bids but gains were unwound through the session
• Trump cancelled envoy trip to Pakistan and maintained naval blockade; Iran kept Hormuz closed, lifting oil in Sunday evening US trade; gold and stocks fell on the news
• Trump struck a measured tone, saying he was willing to negotiate with Iran by phone
• Iran passed a new proposal via Pakistani mediators to reopen Hormuz and lift the blockade first, with nuclear talks to follow at a later stage
• Iranian FM Araghchi visited Oman, meeting Sultan Haitham bin Tariq to discuss ending the war, regional stability and safe Hormuz transit; presented a “workable framework” for a permanent end to the conflict
• Reports of a cargo ship attacked south of Bab al-Mandab Strait, raising fears of a second front opening in the Iran conflict
• Axios publication of the Iran-US proposal gave risk assets a boost and trimmed oil prices; regional equities and US equity index futures on Globex gained
• Lebanon-Israel ceasefire has broken down with both sides continuing missile exchanges
• USD opened higher early in the session but reversed lower

Oil markets opened the week on the front foot, with buyers pushing prices higher on Globex at the Sunday open, but the gains proved short-lived as the session wore on and the initial risk premium was gradually unwound.

The weekend had set a cautious tone. Trump’s decision to cancel the planned trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, combined with Iran’s continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, had driven oil higher in Sunday evening US trade, with gold and equities moving lower as investors weighed the implications of a deepening stalemate.

Trump’s own messaging was less hawkish than his actions implied, however. The US president signalled he was prepared to negotiate with Iran by telephone, a remark that took some of the edge off the geopolitical risk premium and suggested Washington had not entirely closed the door on a diplomatic path forward.

Behind the scenes, Iran had passed a new proposal to the White House via Pakistani mediators, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade first, with nuclear negotiations to follow at a later stage. The proposal is designed to bypass deep internal divisions within the Iranian leadership over the scope of nuclear concessions Tehran is willing to offer. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reinforced the diplomatic push with a visit to Muscat, where he met Sultan Haitham bin Tariq to discuss ending the war and advancing regional stability. Araghchi presented what was described as a workable framework for a permanent end to the conflict, with Oman’s role as a key mediator front and centre. Safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz was high on the agenda.

Adding to the tension, reports emerged of a cargo ship being attacked south of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, raising concerns that a second front is opening in the broader conflict with Iran and that shipping disruption may extend well beyond Hormuz.

The mood in markets shifted when the Iran proposal received wider mainstream coverage following Axios publishing the story. The broader pickup in coverage gave risk assets a meaningful boost, trimming oil prices from their earlier highs while lifting regional equities and US equity index futures on Globex, as traders reassessed the probability of a diplomatic breakthrough.

Elsewhere, the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire has broken down, with both sides exchanging missile fire in a further deterioration of the regional security picture. The US dollar opened firmer early in the session but reversed course and pressed lower as the day progressed.

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Still to come:

President Trump is set to convene a Situation Room meeting with his senior national security and foreign policy advisers on Monday to assess the deadlocked Iran negotiations and weigh potential next steps in the conflict.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.