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• China PMI data points to export resilience but soft domestic demand remains the weak spot
• USD/JPY ticking higher above 160, no verbal intervention efforts so far today
• US military to present Trump with fresh options for military action
• ICYMI: Central banks buy 244 tons of gold in Q1 at fastest pace in over a year
• China private PMI surges to 52.2 in April, strongest factory reading since late 2020
• China private survey April manufacturing PMI 52.2 (expected 51.0, prior 50.8)
• China official April PMI Manufacturing 50.3 (expected 50.1) Non-manuf. 49.4 (exp 49.9)
• NZ business confidence crashes to -10.6 in April as cost shock rattles outlook – more
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8628 (vs. estimate at 6.8414)
• New Zealand April business confidence in the hole at minus 10.6% vs. +32.5% in March
• Japan March industrial output falls 0.5% as Hormuz closure hits chemicals and fuels
• A desperate Trump pitches Maritime Freedom Construct coalition to reopen Strait of Hormuz
• Japan March Industrial production misses expectations while Retail Sales beat
• Bank of England set to hold at 3.75% as Iran war forces stagflation reckoning
• NZ makes RBNZ votes public as fin min Willis overhauls MPC transparency charter
• Preview: ECB expected to keep rates at 2% today. Lagarde tone on June takes centre stage
• Brazil’s cuts rate by 25bp to 14.50% but flags deanchored inflation and Middle East risks
• Goldman: UAE exit from OPEC introduces oil supply upside risk once Strait of Hormuz reopen

At a glance:

• US CENTCOM to brief Trump Thursday on Iran military options including infrastructure strike, Hormuz seizure and special forces uranium mission; Brent crude hits new war high
• China official manufacturing PMI 50.3 in April, above the 50.1 forecast; non-manufacturing slips to 49.4, a 40-month low, back into contraction
• China RatingDog private manufacturing PMI surges to 52.2, strongest since late 2020, reflecting outperformance of export-oriented private firms versus state-linked enterprises
• USD/JPY pushing toward 160.40 as yen weakens; no Japanese official intervention comments yet
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda scheduled to speak June 3, ahead of the June 15-16 policy meeting, potentially flagging a rate hike
• Bank of England rate decision 1100 GMT, Bailey press conference 1130 GMT; hold expected
• ECB rate decision 1215 GMT, Lagarde press conference 1245 GMT; hold expected

It has been a busy session. The dominant headline is the Axios report that US CENTCOM will brief President Trump on Thursday on fresh military options against Iran, including a concentrated infrastructure strike, a potential ground operation to seize part of the Strait of Hormuz and a special forces mission to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile. Brent crude has risen to a new war high on the news.

From Asia, China’s PMI data delivered a split verdict: the official manufacturing PMI held narrowly above 50 at 50.3 while the non-manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction at 49.4, exposing the gap between a resilient export-oriented factory sector and a struggling domestic economy. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI told a more upbeat story, surging to 52.2, its strongest reading since late 2020, reflecting the better fortunes of China’s private and export-focused firms relative to their state-linked counterparts.

In currency markets, the yen continued to weaken with USD/JPY pushing toward 160.40 and no verbal intervention from Japanese officials as yet. Notably, the Bank of Japan has announced that Governor Ueda will speak on June 3, ahead of the June 15-16 policy meeting, a scheduling choice that markets may read as preparation for a rate hike signal.

Still to come today are rate decisions from the Bank of England at 1100 GMT and the European Central Bank at 1215 GMT. Both are expected to hold. Governor Bailey speaks at 1130 GMT and President Lagarde at 1245 GMT. See the previews above for the detail on what to watch.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.