If you routinely pull into a gas station for a fill-up once a week, you may notice that the tab for gasoline is different.
Noticeably different.
Gasoline prices in the United States are lower.
In fact, according to AAA data, the average price of a gallon of gas has fallen 10.5% to $4.164 a gallon since peaking on May 21 at $4.564.
The change in the last week was nearly 16 cents a gallon.
So, a 15-gallon fill-up that might have cost you $69.81 a gallon on May 21 is down to $62.46.
What you pay for gasoline varies by state. The state average in Texas as of June 8 was $3.62. It was $5.895 in California, $3.834 in Georgia and $4.338 in Pennsylvania.
So, be happy. For now.
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Middle East fighting hasn’t yet stopped
It is not clear how the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran will play out. Negotiations between the Trump Administration and Iran seem little more than the two sides passing pieces of paper back and forth across a table.
Meanwhile, Israel’s continuing attacks on Iranian allies in Lebanon have provoked new drone-and-missile attacks from Iran. Israel was firing missiles directly at Iran for the first time since a U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect on April 8.
These most recent attacks sent crude oil prices higher by as much as 4.8% in early trading on June 8, and stock futures were struggling to recover from an ugly selloff on June 5.
Crude oil in the United States was at $94.50 per 42-gallon barrel in overnight trading.
If the fighting continues and the modest amounts of oil flowing out of the Persian Gulf dry up, you could see upward pressure on gas prices return.
Before the war started, about 20% of the world’s crude oil flowed from countries in the Persian Gulf region through the Strait of Hormuz to markets around the world.
Making the situation potentially more volatile is that the summer driving season in the United States is about to accelerate, typically peaking in late July and early August.
Oil refineries are using more expensive ingredients to make gas that can withstand summer heat and can meet environmental standards.
Nobody really wants military operations like those seen in March and April to start again. President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on June 7 not to launch a major attack on Iran, according to Axios. Trump said the United States wants to continue talks with Iran.
Time exposure of Israeli forces shooting down Iranian missiles.
Chen Junqing / Xinhua / Getty Images)
Traders still believe the war will end
That said, global markets have been behaving lately as if traders see some kind of a finish to this war before too long, said veteran oil analyst John Killduff of Again Capital in New York in an interview.
One can see the thinking in current futures trading.
Crude oil bought and sold for delivery within the month are commanding premium prices above $94 a barrel, according to data from CME Group, the largest operator of futures exchanges. In January 2027, the market for the same crude is just $83 a barrel, or about 13% lower than the market.
That gap is far wider than usual.
Consider where prices stood on Dec. 31, 2026. At the time, the near-month price for crude oil (to be delivered in February 2026) closed at $57.48 a barrel. On that same day, the price for oil expected to be delivered in January 2027 was $56.92, according to data from Barchart.com. Almost the same.
When the fighting broke out, starting on Feb. 28, speculators poured billions into the markets.
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