A battle 3,000 miles away could shape Palantir’s next move | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has a new political headache on its hands in the UK.

It has a strong defense too.

The U.S. data-analytics company is facing fresh pressure over its £330 million contract to run the National Health Service’s federated data platform, a system designed to connect health-service data and help hospitals manage care, capacity and waiting lists.

The political case against Palantir has been growing stronger as MPs, campaigners and some NHS personnel wonder whether a US business with defense and government links should sit at the heart of a key British health data system.

But the simplest argument against Palantir has a serious drawback, says one former NHS data leader: there may not be a British alternative ready to step in.

Tom Bartlett, who led the NHS data engineering team that developed the federated data platform, told The Telegraph that replacing Palantir by the contract’s next break point would be “very unrealistic,” arguing that an alternative would first have to be built.

That matters for investors, since it’s no longer just about whether Britain wants Palantir out of the NHS.

It’s about whether Britain can shed Palantir without hampering instruments that advocates say are already benefiting medical care.

Palantir shares recently traded at $129.30, giving the company a market value of about $332.4 billion.

Palantir stock faces a UK contract test

The NHS contract is a high-profile test of Palantir’s public sector business outside the U.S.

England said that the contract for the federated data platform was given to a consortium led by Palantir Technologies UK in November 2023 after a competitive procurement procedure. The NHS says it plans to use the platform for direct treatment and population-health planning, not external research.

Britain is pressured to exercise a break provision at the end of the initial term in early 2027, with Reuters reporting in June that the government is conducting a comprehensive assessment of the £330 million NHS data contract.

This pressure is not unexpected.

A U.K. parliamentary committee criticized Britain’s reliance on Palantir as an “unacceptable point of weakness,” highlighting the company’s growing footprint in the public sector and warning against vendor lock-in. The committee also asked the government to look at the break clause in the contract.

So the NHS contract is more than just a single consumer issue.

It is a test for Palantir of whether governments which seek sovereign control over data will still use its software after operational systems are already in place.

Palantir’s NHS contract has a replacement problem

The core question for investors is whether political pressure can become a contract risk.

The answer may rely on the problem of substitution.

But supporters of the NHS platform say Palantir is not easy to ditch as the technology is currently in use throughout areas of the health sector. NHS England’s own documents include federated data platform tools linked to cancer pathways, hospital operations and discharge delays.

More Palantir:

The Telegraph said more than half of NHS trusts in England utilize the technology, with the latest NHS numbers suggesting the platform had helped deliver 110,000 extra surgeries since the seven-year contract began in 2023.

The claim is a politically delicate one.

NHS England and Palantir have claimed 110,000 more procedures and reductions to the waiting list, although Digital Health said the numbers do not separate out the platform from other factors that may have impacted performance. The British Medical Journal further claimed that NHS England has recognized that the federated data platform advantages were not supported by rigorous causal data.

Key takeaways from the Palantir NHS fight

Palantir runs the NHS federated data platform through a £330 million contract.
Britain is reviewing the contract amid pressure to use a break clause.
Critics argue the deal creates public-sector dependence on a U.S. technology company.
A former NHS data leader told The Telegraph that replacing Palantir by the next break point is unrealistic.
NHS England says Palantir won the contract through a competitive procurement process.
Supporters say the platform is helping hospital operations and patient care.
Critics say the claimed benefits need stronger evidence and better transparency.

That’s a complex investor setup, but a crucial one.

Critics of Palantir could say the NHS should not be so dependent on a single US provider. Palantir’s defenders can argue that pulling the business out too quickly could destabilize a technology hospitals already use.

“There isn’t one at the moment,” Bartlett told The Telegraph, referring to a ready replacement.

Palantir’s political risk cuts both ways

What’s interesting about the Palantir dispute is that both sides have reasons investors need to hear.

There is an evident political risk.

If a future British government decides that Palantir is too contentious for the NHS, it risks reputational harm, contract uncertainty and the pressure on its wider public sector growth story.

Andy Burnham has reportedly said he wants Palantir out of the NHS if he becomes prime minister, and campaign groups have called on him to strip the corporation of its role in health care.

But there’s also a chance that the operational risk could play in Palantir’s advantage.

If officials determine it will be years rather than months to replace Palantir, the business might have more leverage than the political headlines imply. That doesn’t remove the danger of a future transition, but it could lessen the possibility of a quick exit.

That is the investor angst.

Palantir’s involvement with sensitive public data could make it politically vulnerable. But it can be operationally hard to dislodge since big public services typically become dependent on the technology that connects their data.

Palantir faces wider UK scrutiny

Palantir’s cooperation with the U.K. public sector is under scrutiny outside the NHS.

A local government lawyer reported that London’s mayor blocked a separate Metropolitan Police deal with Palantir earlier this year, and the business later said it would dispute the decision legally.

This case is important because the argument is about a single health contract.

Palantir has created a large industry supplying data platforms to governments, health systems, militaries and enterprises. That technique can work when institutions need software that can integrate complicated data in a timely fashion.

But it also means periodic political exposure.

As Palantir grows more embedded in public sector operations, it faces more criticism about data protection, vendor lock-in, and the political ideals of its customers.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp gestures during a World Economic Forum event.

Bloomberg / Getty Images

The dispute over the NHS is not just about one British contract for investors.

That’s a hint of a wider dilemma regarding Palantir’s growth: Can the business continue to earn sensitive government contracts while avoiding political backlash over data control?

Britain may seek a home-grown option in the end.

But the tricky thing is what Bartlett’s warning alludes to.

One is to replace Palantir. Another is to have a backup system ready to go.

That’s why the NHS conflict may be less detrimental to Palantir in the short term than the headlines suggest.

It is a huge political danger for the company. But unless Britain can show it has a viable substitute, Palantir may still have the greatest case in the room: the technology is already there, and yanking it out swiftly could be harder than critics expect.