Main PageJuly 8, 2026

investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Oil jumps, dollar bid, RBNZ first hike in 3 years

Oil jumps, dollar bid as US-Iran truce teeters; RBNZ delivers first hike in three years

  • US oil prices jumped nearly 3% in early Wednesday trade, extending Tuesday’s gains, after fresh US strikes on Iran hit air defense, radar, missile and drone sites plus port facilities
  • Strikes followed Iranian attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a US move to revoke Iran’s oil sales licence; a US official called the response “punishment, not proportional” and said it would continue
  • Iran reportedly ordered its IRGC Navy to close the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic, unconfirmed officially, and vowed “decisive actions” in response, with an escalation ladder now expected
  • Dollar index hit its highest level since 2 July on safe haven demand, with global yields climbing on renewed inflation concern
  • RBNZ delivered its first rate hike in three years, lifting the OCR 25bp and flagging further increases likely, though timing uncertain; NZD firmed on the move
  • Asia equities mixed: Nikkei soft, KOSPI swung from a 2.5%+ opening loss to a 1% gain before fading, Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng the standouts, with Hang Seng helped by strong IPO debuts including Momenta Global
  • US equity futures opened on the backfoot but firmed to flat/modestly higher as KOSPI reversed
  • US Commerce Department reportedly lifted export restrictions on OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 model

Markets opened the session digesting a fast-moving escalation between the US and Iran, with oil doing most of the talking. Crude extended its recent run higher, adding almost 3% early Wednesday as traders absorbed confirmation that Washington had launched a fresh, larger wave of strikes against Iranian military and related infrastructure. The action came in direct response to Iranian attacks on three commercial tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and was compounded by the Trump administration’s decision to revoke Iran’s licence to sell oil, a financial squeeze that preceded the kinetic one. A US official framed the strikes explicitly as punitive rather than proportional, signalling Washington intends to keep the pressure on rather than settle for a single retaliatory round.

Iran’s response so far has been mainly rhetorical but pointed. Tehran said the reinstated oil sanctions themselves amount to a breach of the memorandum that ended the earlier war, and unconfirmed reports suggest its navy has been told to shut the strait to all traffic, a step that would mark a serious escalation if confirmed. Iran has also promised further action to protect its interests, leaving markets bracing for the next rung on what increasingly looks like a mutual escalation ladder rather than an isolated exchange. Iran attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain followed.

The dollar caught a safe haven bid as a result, trading at its best level since 2 July against a basket of peers, while yields pushed higher globally on reawakened inflation concern tied to the energy shock. Against that backdrop, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered its first OCR hike in three years, lifting rates by 25 basis points and flagging that more tightening is likely, even as it stressed the timing remains highly uncertain. The kiwi firmed in response.

Equity markets across Asia told a choppier story. The Nikkei opened weak and briefly touched flat before slipping back into the red, while the KOSPI swung wildly, opening down more than 2.5% before fully reversing to gains of as much as 1%, though that upside proved short-lived. Shanghai and Hong Kong were the session’s bright spots, with the Hang Seng outperforming on a run of new listings, headlined by Momenta Global’s debut, which traded as much as 5% above its issue price before giving back the gain. US equity futures mirrored the KOSPI’s mood swing, opening soft before firming to flat or modestly higher.

Away from the geopolitical and monetary headlines, the US Commerce Department was reported to have lifted export restrictions on OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 model, a smaller story for now but one worth watching given the broader tech and AI investment threads running through the global growth outlook.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.