Millions of Americans nearing retirement may be making one of the most significant financial decisions of their lives based on inaccurate information.
They believe Social Security will vanish entirely once its trust fund runs dry, and that belief is pushing many to claim benefits years too early.
A survey from AARP suggests the problem runs deeper than most people realize, with bipartisan confusion clouding the program’s future.
The stakes are high because claiming Social Security before full retirement age permanently reduces monthly payments for life, the Social Security Administration confirmed.
Only 32% of older adults understand what trust fund depletion means
Among adults 50 and older, just 32% correctly understand that trust fund depletion would reduce benefits rather than end them, AARP Research found.
The survey, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago’s Foresight 50+ Omnibus in May 2026, polled 1,051 adults in that age group.
When the same question was posed to all U.S. adults in an AARP poll, 39% said payments would stop completely if the trust funds ran short.
Only 23% selected the correct answer, which is that payments would continue at a reduced level, the poll found.
The misunderstanding holds steady across party lines, age brackets, and education levels, the AARP study indicated.
Nancy LeaMond, AARP’s chief advocacy and engagement officer, addressed the “going broke” myth directly in a video explainer on how the program is financed.
Social Security will never go broke, as some have claimed.
That consistency suggests the confusion is structural rather than ideological, rooted in how the program’s finances are communicated.
Concern about the program’s trajectory is also nearly universal, with 68% of adults 50 and older calling the ability to pay full benefits a major problem.
Of respondents, 81% flatly rejected cutting retirement benefits as a solution to the funding gap, the survey found.
Fear may be pushing non-retirees to claim Social Security benefits early
The misunderstanding is shaping retirement decisions across the country at an alarming rate, with tangible financial consequences.
Only 10% of non-retired Americans plan to wait until age 70 to start collecting Social Security, and 44% expect to file before reaching the full retirement age of 67, according to the 2025 Schroders U.S. Retirement Survey.
That willingness to claim early persists, despite 70% of respondents saying they understand that delaying benefits leads to higher monthly payments.
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Claiming at 62 instead of 67 permanently reduces your monthly payment by about 30%, and that reduced amount is locked in for life, the Social Security Administration confirmed.
Using a hypothetical $2,000 monthly benefit at 67, personal finance expert Suze Orman illustrated the gap in a June 11 blog post. Even under a 20% benefit cut, the person who waited would still collect about $1,600, while the person who claimed at 62 would collect about $1,260.
Fear of missing out is driving many Americans to claim Social Security early, reducing lifetime benefits.
What the 2026 Trustees Report reveals about benefits after depletion
The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released on June 9, projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032.
After that date, the program could still pay 78% of scheduled retirement benefits from ongoing payroll tax revenue alone, the trustees confirmed.
If the retirement fund and disability insurance fund were combined, the reserves would last until the third quarter of 2034, with 83% of benefits payable at that point.
Under current law, retirement benefits would face a 22% reduction if the OASI trust fund depletes on schedule in 2032, or a 17% cut if Congress authorizes combining the retirement and disability funds, according to the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report.
Either scenario falls far short of the total elimination that 39% of Americans anticipate, according to a 2026 AARP poll.
The critical distinction is that Social Security operates on a pay-as-you-go structure funded primarily by payroll taxes from current workers.
Congress has fixed similar shortfalls before, as the 1983 reforms demonstrated when bipartisan legislation extended the program’s solvency for five decades, AARP reported.
Researchers pinpoint the cognitive bias behind Social Security panic
New academic research from Cornell University helps explain exactly why so many Americans get the program’s finances wrong, identifying a cognitive shortcut called “inflow neglect.”
People focus on the shrinking trust fund balance and overlook the ongoing payroll tax revenue that would continue funding benefits indefinitely.
“Misunderstanding Social Security’s finances isn’t just an academic issue,” said Suzanne Shu, a Cornell professor who co-authored the study published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. “It shapes retirement planning and public opinion,” she told the Cornell Chronicle.
Bill Sweeney, AARP’s senior vice president for government affairs, said lawmakers face strong political incentives to prevent benefit cuts.
“You can say a lot of unflattering things about Congress, but lawmakers have a finely tuned instinct for their own reelections,” Sweeney told AARP. “Letting Social Security run out of money or letting benefits be cut across the board would be the end of their careers.”
Social Security Administration urges workers to check benefit estimates
For workers nearing retirement, the Social Security Administration recommends checking personalized benefit estimates rather than relying on assumptions about the program’s future.
Fear of Social Security’s future is widespread, but the facts do not support the most extreme version of that fear circulating on social media.
Benefits face a reduction — not elimination — if Congress fails to act. As Orman noted, decisions made during early retirement continue to affect one’s life.
Related: AARP sounds alarm on worrying problem for Social Security