Eli Lilly (LLY) has seen a lot of bullish calls from Wall Street in July. 

Guggenheim, Truist, Bank of America, Bernstein, and JPMorgan all raised their price targets in the first half of the month. 

Then UBSwent higher than nearly all of them.

UBS’s call is worth watching closely because it landed in the same week as prescription data that point in a bearish direction.

For anyone holding Lilly stock into its August earnings report, the gap between those two things is worth looking at.

UBS raises its Eli Lilly price target to $1,425

On July 13, UBS analyst Michael Yee lifted his price target on Eli Lilly to $1,425 from $1,250 and kept a buy rating. 

That is a 14% increase from the previous target, and it implies a roughly 20% boost from where the stock traded on the July 13.

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Yee tied the raise to sales momentum in Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly’s diabetes and obesity injections. He also cited optimism around Kisunla, its Alzheimer’s treatment, Financial Modeling Prep reported.

A buy rating means the analyst expects the stock to outperform. The $1,425 figure is where he thinks shares could trade over the next 12 months.

UBS was not alone. Guggenheim moved to $1,273, BofA to $1,334, Truist to $1,370, and Bernstein to $1,385, all in the same stretch, according to GuruFocus.

UBS raised its Eli Lilly price target to $1,425, citing Mounjaro and Zepbound demand.

JHVEPhoto / Getty Images

Why Mounjaro and Zepbound sales support the Lilly target

The bull case rests on a business that has been growing at a pace that’s rare for major pharmaceutical companies.

In the first quarter of 2026, revenue rose 56% to $19.8 billion, and Lilly raised full-year guidance to between $82 billion and $85 billion, Lilly‘s earnings release showed.

What the franchise delivered in Q1

• Mounjaro brought in $8.66 billion worldwide, more than doubling from the same quarter in 2025.
• U.S. Zepbound sales reached $4.16 billion, up 80%.
• U.S. revenue climbed 43% to $12.1 billion on a 49% jump in volume.
• Adjusted earnings came to $8.55 per share against a $6.66 consensus, CNBC reported.

Volume did that work, not price. Realized prices fell in both markets, and demand still overwhelmed the drag.

That is the pattern Lilly’s management promised, and it is the reason analysts keep moving their targets up.

The Foundayo prescription data complicating the bullish view

Foundayo, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 pill, launched in April and was supposed to widen the market to patients who will not take an injection. 

However, weekly prescriptions have been flat for five weeks, Fierce Pharma reported, citing IQVIA data in a July 10 Jefferies note.

Foundayo versus the Wegovy pill at week 13

• Foundayo: 19,550 weekly prescriptions, down for a third straight week from a week-10 peak of 21,648.
• Novo Nordisk Wegovy pill: More than 105,000 at the same point after launch.
• Jefferies projects $71 million in debut-quarter Foundayo sales, against a Wall Street consensus near $130 million.

There are fair explanations for the performance. Oral Wegovy is semaglutide, a molecule doctors already knew, while Foundayo is a new compound with a new brand name.

Coverage also arrived late, as CVS was the last of the three big pharmacy benefit managers to cover Foundayo, while Wegovy had full coverage in its first week. 

Employer appetite for GLP-1 coverage is also a separate pressure on the same demand curve.

What the Kisunla and Alzheimer’s angle actually adds

The second leg of the UBS thesis is Kisunla, and the timing is planned. 

Lilly presented 16 abstracts at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in London from July 12 to 15.

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The headline items were long-term extension data on Kisunla’s benefit-risk profile and a comparison of P-tau217 blood tests against amyloid PET scans in patients with no symptoms yet.

That second item matters a lot. 

PET scans are expensive and scarce, so a blood test that finds Alzheimer’s early would widen the pool of diagnosed patients, and every diagnosed patient is a potential Kisunla candidate.

However, it is years from moving the revenue line the way Mounjaro does today.

How Lilly stock has traded against its own good news

The stock has not been keeping pace with analysts’ optimism.

LLY share-price snapshot:

• Closed at $1,152.54 on July 14, down 4.89% over five trading days.
• Up 11.58% over the past six months, and still up on the year.
• 52-week range of $623.78 to $1,249.45, with the all-time closing high of $1,235.56 set July 7.
• Market value near $1.09 trillion, with a price-to-earnings ratioaround 41.

The stock set a record on July 7, then gave back nearly 5% into the week UBS raised its target. 

At $1,152.54, the $1,425 target implies about 24% upside, wider than the roughly 20% measured on the day of the call.

A price-to-earnings ratio in the low 40s means investors are already paying for years of growth that has not arrived yet, which is exactly why a lagging sales number can move the shares.

What Eli Lilly investors should watch before Aug. 5

Lilly reports second-quarter results on Aug. 5, and the report is a straightforward test for the stock.

Three things that decide whether $1,425 holds:

• Foundayo’s reported quarterly sales: Consensus sits near $130 million, and Jefferies models $71 million, so the actual figure settles whether the IQVIA data was missing telehealth scripts or telling the truth.
• Mounjaro’s international momentum: Growth outside the U.S. ran 81% last quarter, helped by China adding Mounjaro to its reimbursement list, and generics are coming to some markets.
• Whether volume keeps outrunning prices: Realized prices are falling in both the U.S. and abroad, and the whole thesis depends on demand growing faster than that decline.

Mounjaro and Zepbound are performing, and nobody disputes that.

For long-term investors, the August report tells you whether Foundayo is simply experiencing a slow start or whether the drug is a miss.

If you’re looking at adding LLY to your portfolio, keep in mind that six banks raised their targets into the same crowded trade this month, and the stock is already 8% off its high with a $1,425 target. 

At this multiple, one bad quarter is enough to hurtthe stock, so size your position accordingly.

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