• CPI MoM -04% versus -0.2% estimate. Prior month +1.0%
• CPI YoY 2.8% versus 2.9% estimate. Prior month 3.2%
• CPI BOC COre YoY 2.1% versus 2.2% last month
• CPI BoC Core MoM 0.1% versus 0.6% last month
• CPI MOM SA -0.1% vs. 05% last month
• Core CPI MoM SA 0.2% versus 0.2% last month
• CPI median +1.9% versus 2.1% estimate. Prior month 2.1%
• CPI trim 1.8% versus 2.0% estimate. Prior month 2.0%
• CPI common 2.6% versus 2.7% last month

Gasoline prices continued to ease in June, rising at a slower year-over-year pace than in May and helping to drive the moderation in Canada’s headline inflation rate. Prices at the pump increased at a slower rate on a year-over-year basis in June (+20.5%) compared with May (+33.2%). While gasoline prices remained elevated due to the conflict in the Middle East, diplomatic talks and an interim ceasefire arrangement contributed to an easing of global oil prices in June, leading to a 10.2% month-over-month decline.

Excluding gasoline, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged from the previous month at 2.2%, underscoring the broader stability in underlying inflation. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined 0.4% in June—the largest monthly drop since December 2024. After seasonal adjustment, prices slipped 0.1%, marking the first monthly decline since April 2025 and signaling that inflationary pressures continued to soften as the second quarter came to a close.

World Cup had an impact on travel related services

The 2026 FIFA World Cup boosted travel-related inflation in June, particularly in host cities such as Toronto and Vancouver. Strong visitor demand pushed traveller accommodation prices up 10.1% year over year, with hotel prices surging 19.4% in Ontario and 20.0% in British Columbia. Increased travel also lifted rental car prices by 6.8%, travel tour prices by 6.8%, and airfares by 9.6%, as higher domestic travel demand and elevated jet fuel costs combined to drive transportation costs higher.

Regionally, 

• Inflation slowed in every Canadian province in June compared with May, except in Prince Edward Island.
• Slower gasoline price increases were the primary reason for the nationwide moderation in inflation.
• Internet service prices fell 3.8% year over year, led by lower pricing across most of Western Canada.
• Cellular service prices in Quebec rose 2.6% as promotional pricing ended and new plan prices increased.
• Ontario recorded the lowest annual inflation rate at 2.0%, helped by slower restaurant price increases.
• Nova Scotia had the highest annual inflation rate at 4.7%, driven mainly by higher traveller accommodation costs.

IN Summary:

Overall, Canada’s June inflation report pointed to easing underlying price pressures despite pockets of strength in travel-related categories. The headline CPI declined 0.4% from May—the largest monthly drop since December 2024—while the annual inflation rate moderated as gasoline prices slowed sharply. Excluding gasoline, inflation held steady at 2.2%, suggesting broader price pressures remained well contained. While World Cup-related travel demand temporarily boosted prices for hotels, airfares, rental vehicles, and travel tours, the overall trend was one of cooling inflation, with lower energy costs and softer price growth across most provinces helping to offset those increases.

The USDCAD is higher after the report with the price ticking back above the 100 hour MA at 1.4040.   The price movedbelow the 100 hour MA on July 8 and has stayed below the MA since that time.  The price is back above that MA.  That will be a barometer for the buyers and the sellers 



This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.