• ICYMI – Iran rejects Trump ceasefire offer carried by Iraqi PM, NYT reports
• Gold extends slide below $4,040 support to test $4,025 as yields bite
• Asian shares slump as AI spending fears and oil spike hit sentiment, rates
• Preview – BOJ to hold next week, keep inflation overshoot warning. but see risks easing
• Trump losing patience with Iran war, in revenge mode, WSJ reports
• Singapore – MAS seen holding policy steady on July 27 as inflation stays mild, Reuters poll shows
• Japan finmin Katayama signals readiness for decisive forex action on yen
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7939 (vs. estimate at 6.7795)
• Japan warns of faster cost pass-through inflation while BOJ expected to hold rates next week
• Japan composite PMI rises to 53.1 as war related cost pressures persist
• Japan core CPI rises 1.6% in June, matching forecast, USD/JPY little changed
• Japan June 2026 inflation: Headline jumps to 1.7% y/y (prior 1.5%)
• Complacency fades as analysts warn oil crisis now graver than March
• Australia composite PMI rises to 52.6 in July as new orders return to growth
• US presses BOJ on rate hikes as yen hits 40-year low … intervention threat looms
• Satellite images show Iran rebuilding fast despite US Israeli strikes
• Trump unveils new tariffs designed to survive legal challenge, WSJ reports
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 23 Jul: Risk off sentiment as geopolitical tensions rise.
• OIL – Opec+’s slow unwind continues even as a second chokepoint closes
• It was an ugly day for US stocks.
• Gold holds support near $4,040 ( … for now!) as oil driven yields blunt haven bid

Summary:

• Oil prices were little changed on the session
• Opec+ is expected to raise September output by around 188,000 bpd at its August 2 meeting, sticking to its existing schedule even though the Red Sea disruption means much of that extra oil cannot reach the market
• US Centcom confirmed a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military targets, aimed at curbing threats to commercial shipping from the Revolutionary Guard
• Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal from Trump delivered via Iraq’s prime minister, warning it would strike Tel Aviv and push Houthi allies to close Bab al-Mandeb if the US targets Tehran directly
• The Trump administration will impose new tariffs of 10 to 12.5 percent on 60 trading partners from Friday, built on more legally durable grounds than the levies struck down by the Supreme Court
• The US Treasury pressed the BOJ to keep raising rates as the yen hit a 40 year low; Japan’s finance minister Katayama said Tokyo and Washington are in close contact and Japan stands ready to act decisively on the currency
• Japan’s June CPI landed in line with forecasts, leaving USD/JPY little changed and trading steadily around 163.80, with only a slight touch of broader dollar weakness elsewhere in FX
• Regional equities sold off heavily: Korea Exchange triggered sidecar curbs on both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ, while Japan’s Nikkei fell around 2.5 percent
• South Korea’s regulator moved up a higher deposit requirement for retail trading of single stock leveraged ETFs to July 31, aiming to curb speculative trading blamed for adding to volatility

Wrap:

Oil prices were little changed on the session, holding their ground even as the Middle East conflict showed no sign of cooling. Opec+ is on track to approve another output increase of around 188,000 barrels a day for September at its meeting on August 2, sticking to the same incremental schedule it has followed for months. But with a fresh flare up in the Red Sea alongside the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, much of that additional supply looks unlikely to actually reach buyers, leaving the quota rise largely symbolic.

The military backdrop remains the dominant driver. US Central Command confirmed American forces carried out a 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military targets, part of a campaign aimed at holding Iran accountable and reducing threats posed by the Revolutionary Guard to commercial shipping. Diplomacy showed little traction in parallel: Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal from President Trump that was delivered to Tehran by Iraq’s prime minister, with Iranian officials warning that any US strike on Tehran itself would prompt Iran to widen the war, including retaliatory strikes on Tel Aviv and a push for its Houthi allies to close Bab al-Mandeb.

On trade, the Trump administration confirmed it will impose new tariffs of 10 to 12.5 percent on 60 trading partners from Friday, replacing an expiring temporary levy with duties built on a more legally durable footing following the Supreme Court’s earlier rejection of its global tariff program.

Currency markets stayed focused on Japan. The US Treasury’s latest report pressed the Bank of Japan to continue raising rates as the yen touched a 40 year low, warning that excessive currency volatility is undesirable. Japan’s finance minister Katayama followed up by confirming Tokyo and Washington remain in close, round the clock contact, and reiterated that Japan stands ready to take decisive action on the currency if needed. June inflation data offered little fresh direction for the pair, with headline and core CPI both landing in line with expectations, though the core-core measure slowed to its softest pace since August 2022, giving the BOJ some room to stay patient at next week’s meeting. USD/JPY traded steadily around 163.80, with only a slight touch of broader dollar softness evident elsewhere across major currencies.

Asian equities bore the brunt of the day’s risk aversion, driven by a mix of oil and AI related concerns. South Korea’s KOSPI fall was severe enough to trigger sidecar trading curbs, with a similar halt activated on the KOSDAQ after futures there dropped more than 6 percent. Japan’s Nikkei fell around 2.5 percent in sympathy. In a move aimed at containing market volatility, South Korea’s financial regulator brought forward the start date for a higher deposit requirement on retail trading of single stock leveraged ETFs to July 31, requiring a cash deposit of roughly 30 million won, about 20,000 US dollars. The measure targets speculative trading in leveraged products tied to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which were approved in late May and have since drawn criticism for amplifying volatility in the broader market. 

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.