- BOJ leaves rates unchanged as expected. Vote was 8-1
- China July manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 50.0 expected
- Australia Q2 PPI +3.6% vs +3.0% prior
- Japan June prelim industrial production +1.3% m/m vs +0.7% expected
- Japan unemployment rate 2.5% vs 2.5% expected
- Tokyo July CPI ex-fresh food +1.9% y/y vs +1.7% expected
- South Korea also intervened in FX on Thursday
- NZ consumer confidence bounces to 99.3 from 91.3
- Treasury Secretary Bessent appears to endorse yen intervention
Markets:
- WTI crude down $1.25 to $82.36
- US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.65%
- USD leads, JPY lags
- Gold down $26 to $4075
- S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
- South Korean Kospi up 14%
What a day all around. We’re still in the post-FOMC glow but with earnings and huge earnings moves from four Mag7 names, it feels like ages ago. The big moves on earnings continued as Amazon shares surged higher and Apple fell. The bigger development in the US was that the Situational Awareness hedge fund had to fire sale its public equities to Citadel. But once that was revealed, it marked a bottom and we saw enormous rallies in chip names and other holdings of the fund, including SK Hynix. Given the big Korean holding and the rout in Korean stocks, there was a big turnaround in South Korean shares to wrap up a legendary week in that market.
Not to be outdone, Japan entered the FX fray in US hours and slammed USD/JPY lower ahead of the BOJ decision. Almost immediately, USD/JPY bulls have been picking up the pieces and that pair is up 113 pips in Asia, cutting through 160.00 and quickly continuing 63 pips higher. The US didn’t push back at all and Bessent even appeared to endorse the move.
A disappointing development was China’s official PMI set, which were both slightly soft. But contrast that with Chinese tech shares, which saw some big gains in line with some of the frenzied trading elsewhere. Overall, it feels like a real vibe shift in markets now that some of the big risks are out of the way. That could put a momentum trade in play for August.
Have a great weekend. Eamonn will be back next week.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.