• Australia sets world leading pay floor for 250,000 gig delivery workers
• Gulf states quietly by-pass choke points as Hormuz risk lingers, Saudi Oman deal fits pattern
• Asian shares diverge as chip rally lifts Kospi, Nikkei awaits US CPI
• World’s biggest private gold holder Tether gives users weeks to exit vault
• Trump says has total control of Hormuz. Remarks that jar with weeks of shipping attacks.
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7882 (vs. estimate at 6.7430)
• Goldman chief economist Hatzius expects a benign July US CPI print
• Japan bond yields rise as oil gains stoke fresh inflation concerns
• Fed’s Goolsbee “said” ((7 weeks ago!) inflation is economy’s biggest problem
• MUFG says Hormuz impasse and hawkish Trump keep RBA hike risk alive
• Reuters Tankan hits highest manufacturing reading since March on chip boom
• NAB on RBA wording shift: Outlook relatively even handed, sees first rate cut mid-2027
• Westpac says RBA hold looks entrenched despite hawkish inflation guardrail
• RBA holds cash rate at 4.35pc for second meeting, flags scope to hike again – analyst take
• Oil Tuesday recap – settles higher as Iran keeps Hormuz shut and new Gulf attacks resume
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 11 Aug: Stocks /yields Slip as markets await US CPI
• Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a huge headline crude oil build vs draw expected
• What I’ve missed – Hormuz hopes clash with new shipping attacks (oil up)
• US stocks close mostly lower; Nasdaq leads declines with a fall of -0.60%

Summary

• Oil edges higher as Iran’s Rezaei insists Hormuz stays shut on US terms; fresh attacks reported in Bab al-Mandab and Gulf of Oman
• Trump claims “total control” over Hormuz in tarmac remarks that sit oddly against the on-the-ground picture
• API reports a surprise 9 million-plus barrel crude build against an expected draw, ahead of official EIA data tomorrow
• Nikkei flat awaiting US CPI; Kospi jumps circa 3.5% on chip rally, triggering a sidecar after KOSPI 200 futures rose 5%
• Japan’s 2-year JGB yield hits a fresh high back to May 1995
• North Korea fires a second short-range ballistic missile this week toward the Sea of Japan
• Trump reportedly weighing capital gains relief, including inflation-indexing, ahead of the midterms; policy signal only, not law
• FX ranges tight, modest USD strength ahead of the 8.30am ET CPI release

Oil prices edged mildly higher on Wednesday as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East showed no sign of easing. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States changed its behaviour and accepted Iran’s conditions, while fresh reports emerged of vessels targeted in both the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Gulf of Oman, extending a pattern of attacks that has spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz itself in recent weeks.

President Trump offered a notably different assessment of the situation, telling reporters on the tarmac after a trip to Ohio that matters with Iran are going fine, absolutely fine. Pressed on whether that suggested he trusted Tehran, he said he remained the last person who would trust Iran, citing a pattern of broken commitments, and claimed the United States currently holds total control over the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran lacks control and that the US effectively owns the waterway. He said Iran might eventually attempt something, in which case it would be met with force, but characterised the current US position as a strong one. Those remarks stand in contrast to the reported situation on the ground, where shipping through the strait remains severely curtailed and attacks on vessels have continued in the surrounding waters.

Separately in oil markets, a private survey of US crude inventories pointed to a substantially larger build than expected. American Petroleum Institute data showed crude stockpiles rose by just over 9 million barrels in the week to August 7, against expectations for a roughly half a million barrel draw, a significant miss that will be tested against official Energy Information Administration figures due Wednesday morning in the US.

In Asian equities, Japan’s Nikkei traded close to flat as investors awaited the US Consumer Price Index release and further clarity on the Middle East situation, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped around 3.5% on a rally in chipmakers, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both surging on strong signals of AI infrastructure demand. The Korea Exchange later activated a sidecar mechanism on the Kospi after KOSPI 200 futures rose 5%. In fixed income, Japan’s two year government bond yield advanced 2 basis points to 1.63%, its highest level since May 1995.

Elsewhere, North Korea launched a short range ballistic missile toward the Sea of Japan, the second such test this week. In Washington, Trump is reportedly considering capital gains tax relief ahead of the midterm elections, including inflation indexing of capital gains and a higher exclusion threshold on home sales, currently set at $250,000 for individuals and $500,000 for married couples. Indexing would tax only real, inflation adjusted gains rather than nominal ones, for example taxing only the residual appreciation on a 50% nominal gain if inflation over the holding period ran at 20%, a change that would lower the effective tax burden on long term holdings of equities, real estate and businesses and could support asset prices and trading activity. Any such measures remain policy signals rather than settled law, since direct rate changes or an expanded exclusion would require congressional legislation, and administrative inflation indexing would likely face significant legal challenge.

In currency markets, major pairs traded in narrow ranges, with the US dollar showing modest strength ahead of the CPI report due at 8.30am US Eastern time.

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US CPI due at 0.830 US Eastern time:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.