Headlines:

• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
• What to expect from the US CPI report later today?
• Iran reportedly maintains that there are no discussions over ceasefire extension as the pact doesn’t exist anymore
• USD/JPY stalls ahead of a key US CPI report; BoJ expected to raise rates in September
• Bitcoin Forecast Today: Why BTC Is Struggling Below $64,000
• Fed policymaker Collins says would back September rate hike if data points to that direction
• Germany inflation confirmed to accelerate in July but core prices remain steadier
• Italy inflation eases just a touch in July, core price keep steady though

Markets:

• USD flat, NZD lags on the day
• WTI crude flat at $83.18
• Gold up 1.1% to $4,413
• European indices slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields down 2.4 bps to 4.66%
• Bitcoin up 0.8% to $64,188

The countdown continues ahead of the main event for markets this week, that being the US CPI report for July.

We’re less than an hour away now from that, so it is finally about time to see some action in markets after a more tentative setup in the past few days.

In European trading today, there was an early speculative report that the US and Iran would extend the supposed ceasefire deal from the end of June. But as we all know, that agreement has been broken since last month already and Iran was quick to reaffirm that by saying that there is nothing to extend when the pact “does not even exist”.

WTI crude fell earlier to $82.50 but is now trading back flat on the day at around $83.18.

Besides that, there wasn’t too much other action apart from precious metals climbing further today. Gold is up 1.1% to $4,413 and silver up $2.5% to $66.29 on the day. However, the next move all rides on the US inflation numbers – the same as it would be for broader markets.

The US dollar is not up to much, keeping little changed across the board. USD/JPY is down just 0.1% to 159.06 with traders not really taking the recovery bounce too far in wanting to test the 160 threshold.

Elsewhere, European indices are holding slightly higher alongside US futures while bond yields are down slightly on the day. Overall, the market mood is relatively tentative in waiting on the US CPI report to come.

Will we see any surprises to get markets going in the second half of the week? Or will it be a more benign report, thus forcing the wait to extend to Jackson Hole instead?

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.