• Prior -0.2% (revised to -0.1%)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index increased by 0.2% in July, after an upwardly revised decline of 0.1% in June. As a result, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive, to an increase of 0.2% between January and July 2026, a sharp reversal from its 1.3% contraction over the previous six months.

“The Leading Index for the US ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index. With the most recent gains, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead. The economy should keep expanding, but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households. Consequently, The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.”

The “higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower and middle-income households” is what has weighed on Walmart’s sales, with the stock falling by 8.7%, the biggest one-day decline since July 2022. Lower-income households have pulled back amid elevated gasoline prices. Consumer sentiment also dropped for the first time in three months in August, while the labor market has stabilised after some strength seen in the first half of the year.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.