Novo Nordisk’s CEO delivered a warning that sank its stock by 8% | Louis Velazquez - Official Website, Entrepreneur, Finance, Technology

Investor days are usually a chance for a company to reassure shareholders. Novo Nordisk (NVO) did the opposite on Monday, September 21.

The Danish drugmaker behind Wegovy and Ozempic gathered analysts in London to explain how it plans to grow beyond its two blockbuster franchises. CEO Mike Doustdar, who took over the role in 2025, used much of that time to be honest about the risks the company faces this decade.

American depositary shares of Novo Nordisk closed almost 8% lower after the event, the sharpest single-day drop in more than six months. In Copenhagen, local shares fell about 7% and added to the stock’s decline for the year, which now stands at roughly 22%. That kind of one-day drop is unusual for a stock this size, and it caught many Novo shareholders off guard.

Novo Nordisk stock drops 8% after CEO’s investor day warning

Doustdar opened Novo’s Capital Markets Day in London by naming the risk that analysts have been asking about for the past year. “Let me get the elephant in the room out. Semaglutide LOE (loss of exclusivity) is what’s on most people’s mind and rightfully so,” he told the audience, according to CNBC.

Semaglutide is the active ingredient in both Wegovy, a weight-loss injection, and Ozempic, a diabetes injection. The US patent for the drug expires in 2032. Together those two products account for roughly 75% of Novo’s total revenue, and the US market alone made up more than half of the company’s global sales last year, B!gGo Finance reported.

That level of concentration is why the market reacted so sharply. When a company’s growth outlook depends this heavily on one ingredient, the patent expiration date affects every future earnings estimate. Doustdar’s willingness to name the risk directly left investors with fewer reasons to expect stronger earnings growth in the coming years.

Novo Nordisk shares closed nearly 8% lower on Monday after CEO Mike Doustdar’s Capital Markets Day presentation in London.

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Wegovy and Ozempic still generate most of Novo Nordisk’s revenue

Novo Nordisk earns most of its money by discovering and manufacturing prescription drugs, and its business now depends heavily on obesity and diabetes treatments. Wegovy and Ozempic generate most of the company’s sales. The company also sells insulin products, rare disease therapies, and a newer Wegovy pill.

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BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman, wrote that “Novo remains a show-me story” after the presentation. He also added that investors need clearer visibility on next-generation medicines before confidence rebuilds.

Seigerman also noted that Novo’s own targets point to about 3.6% annual revenue growth until the end of 2030, a pace he told Reuters was already expected. When management guides to what the market already predicts, the stock has little gains to work with.

Eli Lilly’s Medicare lead adds pressure to Novo Nordisk

Novo faces even more pressure when you look at what its main US rival is doing. Eli Lilly (LLY) CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC on Monday that Medicare’s new Bridge program, which launched in July and lets seniors access GLP-1s for a $50 monthly co-pay, has brought about 700,000 new senior patients into the weight-loss market. Ricks said 70% of those patients are on Lilly medicines.

“We’re capturing about seven out of 10 of those new patients,” Ricks said, crediting most of that share to Lilly’s Zepbound, a weight-loss injection. He called the rollout “very market expansionary, which is what we had hoped.”

Lilly held roughly 61% of the combined US obesity and diabetes GLP-1 market in the second quarter of 2026, compared with about 39% for Novo. Doustdar acknowledged that pressure directly at the London event, telling investors, “We created an incredibly attractive market, and now almost every other single pharma company, big or small, is trying to come and compete with us.”

What Novo Nordisk investors should watch before November earnings

The next Novo update comes on November 4, when the company reports its results for the first nine months of 2026. That report will give a fresh look at Wegovy and Ozempic prescription trends and US pricing.

The FDA decision on CagriSema, Novo’s next-generation obesity drug that is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, is also worth paying attention to. Approval would give the company a new product to promote alongside Wegovy while the semaglutide patent still applies.

However, even if CagriSema gets FDA approval, Wall Street will still want proof that patients, insurers, and doctors prefer it over Lilly’s Zepbound and the eventual arrival of generic semaglutide. Between now and February’s full-year results, the market will judge whether Doustdar’s honest comments mark the start of a real change for the business.