• Trump: We will win the Iran war very soon and gas prices will come tumbling down
• Trump prepared to ease sanctions and release frozen funds for nuclear progress – report
• Iran foreign minister’s stay in NY has not been extended
• September Dallas Fed manufacturing business index 9.8 vs 11.6 prior
• ECB’s Lagarde: We view a ‘measured response’ as appropriate to keep inflation in check
• Goldman Sachs: A US diesel export ban would backfire on gasoline prices

Markets:

• Gold down $164 to $4121
• WTI crude oil down 38-cents to $92.79
• S&P 500 down 0.8%
• GBP leads, CHF lags
• US 10-year yields up 4.8 bps to 5.23%

The sentiment to start the week was that Iran negotiations had finally hit a dead end with crude prices jumping more than $3 and Treasury yields hitting cycle highs. The market was hunkering down for a difficult 3rd quarter as we await midterms and AI hitting some speedbumps. Stocks opened lower and there was some flight into the dollar.

Then the usual suspects started talking, first saying Iran was meeting with mediators and then the ‘White House sources’ started talking about new proposals for a deal. That erased the oil gains briefly, gave a lift to stocks and knocked down yields. In addition, the news of oil flowing through the Saudi east-west pipeline helped things in that same direction.

Other news was light with a mediocre Dallas Fed not bothering the markets. Tomorrow we get US consumer confidence and JOLTS.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.