Subtitles used to be a barrier for casual viewers. Today, many people switch them on without thinking twice.
Netflix’s own numbers show how far that habit has spread. Non-English titles now make up more than a third of all viewing on the service, according to Netflix’s first-half 2026 viewing report.
India also logged its highest half-year viewership, led by the heist film Dhurandhar.
That quiet shift now anchors a fresh bull case. Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft upgraded Netflix (NFLX) to Buy from Hold on Sept. 29, arguing investors are too fixated on how much Americans watch.
The odd part is that Kraft cut his price target to $95 from $100 while turning bullish. He also trimmed his operating income and free cash flow estimates, which makes this a valuation call rather than a sudden change in the business.
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Deutsche Bank says investors are watching the wrong screen
Kraft’s case rests on the premise that viewing is still growing. Time spent on Netflix abroad has risen year on year in each of the past four six-month periods, he wrote, according to Investing.com.
The U.S. picture keeps bears busy. YouTube captured a record 14.2% of U.S. TV viewing in July, according to Nielsen. That shift drove HSBC to downgrade the stock to Hold on Sept. 22.
Kraft’s counter is production scale. More than 60% of Netflix’s content is now made outside the U.S., he noted, an edge he believes will protect its global lead.
Valuation does the rest. Netflix trades at about 18 times Deutsche Bank’s 2027 earnings estimate, versus roughly 40 times forward earnings at its June 2025 peak, Kraft wrote. He said he “never thought of ~40x as a reasonable multiple” for the stock.
That explains the target cut. Lower profit estimates pulled it down, yet a recovering multiple and forecast 23% EPS growth in 2027 still leave about 37% upside, according to the note.
Netflix’s own filings support more of that argument than the share price suggests.
Deutsche Bank upgraded Netflix to Buy, arguing overseas viewing growth matters more than U.S. screen time, even as it cut its target to $95.
Netflix’s revenue already tilts away from America
The clearest support is in a table that most headlines skip. Revenue in the U.S. and Canada grew 10% in the second quarter, while Asia-Pacific grew 18% excluding currency swings, according to Netflix’s shareholder letter.
The U.S. and Canada also bring in less than half of sales, with $5.4 billion of $12.6 billion in quarterly revenue, the letter shows. The screen-time debate centers on the slower-growing minority of the business.
AI could widen that gap. Kraft called the technology “more friend than foe” for Netflix, and the company says generative AI workflows touched roughly 300 titles this year. Two of its three highlighted examples came from India and Brazil.
Netflix said those tools deliver higher quality at lower cost, sometimes saving shots that productions would have dropped. Cheaper spectacle makes ambitious local stories easier to fund, strengthening the edge Kraft is betting on. The stock kept sliding anyway.
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Netflix stock sits near the bottom of its 52-week range
The slide has hit a company serving an audience approaching 1 billion people, according to its shareholder letter. At roughly $293 billion in market value, according to Stock Analysis, its swings reach the index funds that many investors own.
The shares have traded between $65.08 and $124.86 over the past 52 weeks, the same data shows. They now sit near the low, which makes Kraft’s valuation case possible.
Wall Street remains mostly positive. Fifty-one analysts rate the stock a consensus Buy with an average target of $92.82, according to Stock Analysis. Yet Hold ratings rose to 16 in September from 12 in April, so Kraft is moving against the drift.
Three developments drove the slide:
- Guidance disappointed in July. Netflix forecast 12% third-quarter revenue growth and narrowed its 2026 range, sending shares lower, according to CNBC.
- A major acquisition collapsed in February. Netflix walked away from Warner Bros. rather than raise its bid, collecting a $2.8 billion termination fee, according to Variety.
- The Street’s lowest target came on Sept. 18. Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to a $57 target, according to Stock Analysis.
Wall Street still grades global media on U.S. data
The slide also exposes a measurement gap. Nielsen updates U.S. viewing shares monthly, while Netflix will publish its detailed viewing report only once a year from 2027, according to its shareholder letter.
That creates a lopsided scoreboard. Bears get a fresh American data point 12 times a year, while the global evidence behind Kraft’s call arrives far less often.
Netflix says the change keeps the focus on revenue and operating profit. Its regional revenue table, next due Oct. 20, according to Stock Analysis, becomes the most important scoreboard.
If growth abroad keeps outrunning the home market, the lesson reaches beyond Netflix. For global media stocks, the ruler investors use can matter as much as the business it measures.
