• SEC proposes letting investment advisers and funds self-custody Bitcoin and other crypto
• Dollar hits highest since May 2025 before payrolls; Asia FX slips despite strong data
• Katayama eyes 7 trillion yen of idle funds as Kiuchi says Japan needs no excessive easing
• UBS sees three catalysts to steady Treasuries, says Fed hike pricing is too aggressive
• Reminder: India and mainland China markets shut Friday as Hong Kong reopens without Stock Connect
• Morgan Stanley: S&P 500 masks weak market as over half of US stocks fall 20% since June
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• Tokyo core CPI jumps to 2.7%, fastest in 10 months, strengthening BOJ rate hike case
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• Fed’s Logan says rates need to rise another 50 bps or more to restore price stability
• ICYMI: US threatens diesel export ban unless Europe taps reserves, seeks 120 million barrels
• Reminder: Hong Kong reopens as mainland China markets and Stock Connect stay shut until October 8
• ICYMI: Goldman pushes next Fed hike to December, sees strong chance no more hikes are needed
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• NZ consumer confidence slips to 97.6 as oil spike weighs, inflation expectations ease
• Fed’s Cook names two inflation worries: the AI buildout and persistent supply shocks
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• AUDUSD falls to lowest level since early July.

Summary:

• Markets were in a holding pattern ahead of US nonfarm payrolls, expected at about 90,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%
• The US dollar stayed firm near its highest since May 2025; the Australian and New Zealand dollars held their ground
• Gold dipped to around $4,140 before recovering; oil prices were little changed after Thursday’s surge above $100
• Tokyo core CPI rose 2.7% in September, its fastest in 10 months, and the core-core measure hit 3%
• Japan’s economy minister said the country no longer needs excessively loose policy; the finance minister targeted about 7 trillion yen in idle funds
• Mainland China and India were closed; Hong Kong reopened without Stock Connect

Markets

Asian trading was subdued on Friday as investors waited for the US September jobs report, due later in the day, which is expected to show payroll growth of about 90,000 and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%. The US dollar remained firm after the dollar index touched its highest level since May 2025 overnight, though the Australian and New Zealand dollars held their ground. Gold slipped to around $4,140 an ounce before recovering, while oil prices barely moved after Brent settled above $102 on Thursday on China’s fuel export halt and reports of further US troop deployments to the Middle East.

Japan

Tokyo inflation surged in September. Core CPI rose 2.7% from a year earlier, well above the 2.4% forecast and the fastest pace in 10 months, while the measure excluding fresh food and energy jumped to 3.0%. Services inflation also picked up, strengthening the case for another Bank of Japan rate hike, with the next policy meeting on October 29-30. Japan’s unemployment rate edged up to 2.5% in August.

Government ministers struck a tone consistent with tighter policy. Economy Minister Kiuchi said Japan, no longer in deflation, has no need for excessively loose monetary policy, while Finance Minister Katayama said she would drastically streamline about 200 idle government funds worth roughly 7 trillion yen as part of a DOGE-style spending review.

Fed and rates

The debate over how far the Federal Reserve needs to tighten remained live. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rates need to rise by at least another 50 basis points, while Goldman Sachs pushed its forecast for the next hike to December and said there is a strong chance no further increases are needed. US 10-year Treasury yields had touched their highest since 2002 on Thursday before easing. UBS said it sees market pricing for nearly four more hikes as too aggressive.

Region

New Zealand consumer confidence edged down to 97.6 in September, with weekly data showing sentiment fading as oil prices spiked mid-month. South Korea’s exports jumped about 84% from a year earlier, but MUFG said Asian currencies remain driven by US yields and the dollar ahead of payrolls.

Mainland Chinese markets remain closed for Golden Week until October 8, and Hong Kong reopened without Stock Connect flows. India’s markets are shut for Gandhi Jayanti and reopen on Monday.

Energy

Diesel supply remains in focus after the US told Germany and France to release emergency stocks or face a potential US export ban. EU energy officials are due to discuss the issue on Friday.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.