• China factory inflation hits 5%, fastest in over four years, as CPI lags at 0.9%
• Lagarde: no second-round effects yet, but ECB can’t wait until they are in full view
• Goldman Sachs says RBA minutes lower bar for November hike, with three hawkish signals
• Australia’s biggest planned IPO in 30 years pulled as AI infrastructure appetite cools
• China September CPI 0.9% y/y (expected 1%, prior 0.8%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7249 (vs. estimate at 6.6922)
• Trump says Taiwan to buy 30% of Alaska pipeline gas, again predicts lower oil prices
• Singapore: MAS could tighten again in 2027 if inflation risks materialise, says ANZ
• How Singapore’s monetary policy works: the S$NEER band explained in three levers
• Singapore’s MAS holds policy steady, surprising all 10 analysts who expected tightening
• Saylor sees Bitcoin above $100,000, says investors will seek (scarce) assets that robots can’t make
• Goldman’s Wilson picks two trades: US megacap tech and German fiscal winners
• UBS sees 28% Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth, says AI and cyclicals can lift US stocks
• US CPI preview: 14 investment bank forecasters see energy lifting headline to 3.6%, core held near 0.2%
• How to read a whale alert: an Ethereum case study and a 5-point checklist
• ICYMI – Three Fed officials signal inflation fight continues; Williams sees no 2027 hike
• Goldman sees upside risks (105 EUR!) to its 70 euro TTF gas forecast as Europe stocks run low
• Morgan Stanley lifts Brent forecast to $105 as costly freight favours short-haul crude
• Fed’s Collins says uncertainty is elevated as she watches breadth of inflation pressures

Summary:

• China’s September exports rose around 36% y/y in dollar terms, far above the 25.5% expected; imports rose 31%, also beating forecasts
• China’s PPI rose 5% y/y, the fastest since June 2022, while CPI edged up to 0.9%, below expectations
• The Monetary Authority of Singapore held policy unchanged, surprising all 10 analysts polled who expected tightening
• ECB President Lagarde said there are no second-round inflation effects yet but the ECB cannot wait until they are fully visible; the euro firmed
• The US dollar was slightly softer, with AUD and NZD outperforming; USD/JPY eased from highs above 158.40
• Oil held firm with Brent near $106; gold traded sideways between roughly $4,150 and $4,170
• The Nikkei rose 0.6% and the Kospi gained around 2%
• US CPI for September is due at 1230 GMT

Oil and gold

Oil prices held firm in Asian trade after Tuesday’s busy news flow, with little fresh information during the session and Brent near $106 a barrel.

At a rally in Alaska, US President Donald Trump said Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of the gas from the Alaska LNG pipeline project and invest around $4.4 billion, adding to South Korea’s $50 billion commitment. He again said oil prices would fall soon and that the Iran war would end very soon, forecasts he has made repeatedly during his war.

Gold traded largely sideways in a range of roughly $4,155 to $4,165.

China

China’s exports rose around 36% from a year earlier in September in US dollar terms, well above forecasts of 25.5% and accelerating from 25% in August. Imports grew 31%, ahead of the 24.5% expected and up from around 28% in the prior month.

Producer prices rose 5% year on year, beating the 4.5% forecast and marking the fastest pace since June 2022 as oil and commodity costs climbed. Consumer inflation edged up to 0.9%, below the 1% expected, while core inflation held at 1%, reflecting weak domestic demand that limits the pass-through of higher costs to consumers.

Central banks

The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its policy settings unchanged, maintaining the rate of appreciation, width and centre of its S$NEER policy band. The decision surprised all 10 analysts polled by Reuters, who had expected a tightening. MAS said risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said inflation has been rising mainly, though not only, because of energy prices. She said there are no second-round effects yet, but the ECB cannot wait until they are in full view and is monitoring wage expectations in collective bargaining. On French debt, she said the solution lies first in French fiscal policy.

Currencies

The US dollar was slightly softer across major currencies. The Australian dollar outperformed after the stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data, and the New Zealand dollar also gained. The euro firmed with Lagarde’s remarks, which markets read as hawkish. USD/JPY eased back from earlier highs above 158.40.

Equities

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.6%, rebounding from the previous session’s sharp decline as chip-related stocks gained. The broader Topix was fractionally lower, weighed down by losses in bank shares. South Korea’s Kospi rose around 2%, also rebounding.

Crypto

Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor said Bitcoin has bottomed just under $60,000 and should climb back above $100,000, arguing investors will rotate into scarce assets as AI erodes the value of labour-based equities. He gave no specific timeframe for the target.

Ahead: US CPI

US consumer price data for September is due at 1230 GMT (0830 US Eastern). A Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters shows a median rise of around 0.6% in headline CPI, lifting the annual rate to 3.6% from 3.4% as gasoline prices surge. Core inflation is expected to slow to 0.22% month on month from 0.29%, holding at 2.4% year on year. Core forecasts range from 0.16% at Deutsche Bank to 0.24% at Goldman Sachs, Barclays and Morgan Stanley. With Fed officials debating whether inflation is broadening beyond energy, the core reading is likely to drive market reaction. The Fed’s Beige Book follows at 1800 GMT. 

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.