Many Rocket Lab investors weren’t paying for the small rockets it flies today. They were paying for Neutron, a bigger reusable rocket that hasn’t flown yet. That rocket just slipped again, for a reason almost too small to see.
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) said on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026, that Neutron’s first flight has moved into 2027, according to a press release.
The culprit is voids, tiny air pockets trapped between carbon fiber layers in the forward dome of Neutron’s first-stage tank, Seeking Alpha reported. Pockets like these can weaken the part.
CEO Peter Beck chose to rebuild the dome instead of flying it. “Possible success isn’t our standard,” Beck said in a video update cited by Seeking Alpha.
Also read: Elon Musk makes an audacious claim on the growth of SpaceX
Fix for Rocket Lab’s failure hits snag
In January, a Neutron first-stage tank ruptured during a pressure test, Rocket Lab said at the time. A third party had built it by hand, according to Seeking Alpha.
Rocket Lab then switched to automated fiber placement, a machine that lays carbon fiber in precise strips. It also redesigned the tank, removing joints and reinforcing the propellant domes, Beck said.
Beck said the voids turned up in the forward dome’s thicker sections. What stands out to me is that the part reinforced after January’s failure is where October’s problem surfaced. A thicker dome is stronger when built right, but also harder to build right.
Rocket Lab won’t name a date until new tank passes inspection
Engineers adjusted the process, and an aft dome built that way came out cleaner. A replacement forward dome should be built and inspected before 2027’s first quarter, with tank testing during that quarter. Those tests pressurize the tank and chill it to propellant temperatures, exposing weak spots.
Beck won’t set a launch target until then, and he has hinted at slips before. In August, he said, “the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing,” Reuters reported.
That warning became a delay, much as a 2025 debut once slid into 2026, Space.com reported. Each slip makes the next date harder to trust.
Rocket Lab is using the extra months for upgrades planned for later flights. The second and third rockets are already in production, according to Seeking Alpha. That could speed up early flights once Neutron flies.
Rocket Lab pushed Neutron’s first flight into 2027 after tiny air pockets turned up in a carbon fiber dome on the rocket’s first stage tank.
Wall Street still prices Neutron into RKLB stock
Investors didn’t wait to find out. Shares fell 7.9% in regular trading on Wednesday, Oct. 14, and another 7.3% after hours, according to Seeking Alpha. On Thursday, Oct. 15, the stock dropped as much as 16% before closing down 6.6%, StockAnalysis data shows.
The 52-week range runs from $37.57 to $151. That peak, set on May 27, 2026, is also the all-time high, StockScan data shows, leaving shares about 63% below it. The all-time low was $3.47 on April 16, 2024, according to StockScan.
Rocket Lab is still worth about $33 billion, or roughly 41 times trailing sales, according to StockAnalysis. That multiple assumes Neutron opens a far bigger market, so each delay hits hard.
The company can afford to wait. It held $2.3 billion in cash against $371 million in free cash outflow over the past year, according to StockAnalysis. The quieter cost is dilution, with the share count up nearly 16% in a year.
Second-quarter revenue jumped 62% to a record $234 million, according to Rocket Lab’s earnings release. None of it came from Neutron launches.
The 21 analysts tracked by StockAnalysis rate the stock a consensus Buy, with an average price target of $102.94. Even the lowest target, $64, sits above the Oct. 15 close.
Five firms updated their calls on Oct. 15, according to StockAnalysis:
- Buy, $132 target held: Stifel, Erik Rasmussen
- Buy, target cut to $105 from $129: Clear Street, Gregory Pendy
- Buy, $122 target reiterated: Cantor Fitzgerald, Andres Sheppard
- Buy, $110 target maintained: Roth MKM, Suji Desilva
- Overweight, target cut to $100 from $135: KeyBanc, Michael Leshock
None of the five downgraded the stock. For Wall Street, the timeline moved, but the thesis held.
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The medium lift race now runs through the factory
That patience rests on what Neutron was built to do: give customers an alternative to SpaceX (SPCX) for medium lift launches, Seeking Alpha noted. The need is growing as a capacity squeeze at SpaceX leaves customers hunting for rides.
Yet this setback came from the factory floor, not a flight test. For SpaceX rivals, building giant carbon composite parts consistently may matter as much as rocket design.
StockAnalysis estimates Rocket Lab will report third-quarter results on Nov. 9. What I’ll be watching is whether the new forward dome has passed inspection. That answer will say more about Neutron’s 2027 than any date Beck could offer.
