Tehran and Washington are reportedly nearing a preliminary agreement, according to ILNA Telegram citing Al-Sharara news agency:

• Al-Sharara news agency reported, citing a diplomatic source aware of the intensive diplomatic moves between Tehran and Washington to reach a preliminary agreement aimed at reducing tensions, and announced that the coming hours will be decisive in determining the fate of this agreement.

• Tehran and Washington reportedly on the verge of a preliminary agreement; the coming hours will be decisive, reports ILNA Telegram citing Al-Sharara news agency.

Analysis:

The headline is encouraging for traders looking for a reduction in US-Iran tensions. A preliminary agreement could take some geopolitical risk out of crude oil and give stocks support. However, the report cites a diplomatic source, and the supplied headlines include no official confirmation or details of the proposed terms.

For traders, the next barometer is confirmation from Washington and Tehran. The wording points to progress, but also makes clear that the agreement is still being negotiated. The coming hours could determine whether that progress turns into something concrete. Until then, optimism remains vulnerable to a conflicting headline.

Technically, crude oil extended to a new low of $95.15 before bouncing back to around $95.75. The move lower takes the price further away from the swing area between $97.00 and $98.48. That area now becomes resistance, giving sellers a level to lean against and define risk.

As long as the price remains below $98.48, the sellers retain control, with room to explore further downside. The next major target comes at $91.60, the 38.2% retracement of the move higher from the July low to the September 15 high. A move back above $98.48 would weaken the bearish bias.

For perspective, crude oil was trading near $68 when the war began on February 28. Despite the recent decline, the price remains well above that prewar level.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.