The latest prediction-market prices show another modest shift toward Republicans in Senate control, while House control is largely unchanged. The latter part makes me think the movement is variance in a relatively thin market rather than a signal. In any case, the numbers are worth watching.

There is all kinds of analysis out there about early voting turnout and patterns but it’s almost impossible to sift out the signal from the noise.

House control has been highly likely to be Democrat throughout the cycle and that remains the case, at about 93% on Kalshi. The Senate is much less of a certain thing as it depends on a handful of states with their own dynamics at work.

At the high-water mark this morning, the implied odds of Democrats controlling the Senate were 77%, that’s drifted to 73%. It’s small movement but it’s something. Notably, at this time yesterday, it was 74%. 

The movement could indicate some patterns in contested Senate races.

The stock market is in a decent mood today with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Russell 2000 up 0.8% but I would struggle to take a signal from that as well. Apple bounced shortly after the open but has flatlined since and is down 1.6%.

In terms of actual numbers to trade on, one of the early-reporting districts to watch will be Kentucky’s seventh district, which saw the Republican win by 15 points in 2024 but odds are 59% for Democrat Zach Dembo this time. We should start to see those results from about 7 pm  ET. Other ones to watch are IN-05 and IN-01 according to Goldman Sachs, those were won with 16.8 pp Republican and 0.4 pp Democrat margins in 2024. Expect some of those closer to 8 pm ET.

Overall, we will have a good idea which way from 8 pm with a clear idea by 10 pm ET.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.