Analyst sends bold message on Nvidia stock amid Trump’s new tariffs | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

Nvidia shares (NVDA) dropped 0.69% on July 7 as the chipmaker faced new pressure from U.S. trade moves, including a proposed expansion of tariffs and tighter restrictions on artificial intelligence chip exports.

The Trump administration is planning to restrict shipments of AI chips to Malaysia and Thailand, which are believed to be potential transshipment points for China, Bloomberg reported on July 4.

The U.S. government has been trying to block China’s attempts to acquire advanced semiconductors, including transshipping through third-party countries.

In May, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warned that U.S. export controls could cost the company up to $15 billion in lost sales.

The pressure on Nvidia coincides with a broader market pullback triggered by President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats. In social media posts on July 7, the president shared letters sent to the leaders of 14 countries about upcoming tariff hikes.

“Goods transshipped to evade a higher Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff,” one of the letters stated.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said more letters would be released this week. She also mentioned Trump’s plan to sign an executive order delaying the deadline to resume tariff hikes to August 1.

Nvidia stock just reached an all-time closing high of $159.34 on July 3. The stock is up 17.8% year-to-date.

Image source&colon; Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Nvidia demand holds up, despite trade setback

The new tariff threats are rekindling fears about geopolitical risk for tech companies with global supply chains like Nvidia, which has already faced multiple rounds of regulatory headwinds related to China, including curbs on its A100 and H100 GPU exports.

The company took a $4.5 billion charge in the April quarter and said it would have made an additional $2.5 billion in revenue without the restriction.

Huang has long warned that export controls could hurt U.S. chipmakers and even threaten the country’s position as the global leader in technology.

“If we want the American technology stack to win around the world, then giving up 50% of the world’s AI researchers is not sensible,” Huang said on CNBC.

Still, Nvidia has strong demands for its chips elsewhere, including Saudi Arabia. In May, Nvidia announced that it will supply AI chips to Humain, a rising tech firm in that region.

On May 28, Nvidia posted strong fiscal first-quarter results. Adjusted earnings came in at 96 cents per share on $44.06 billion in revenue, beating Wall Street’s estimates of 93 cents and $43.31 billion.

The company guided for $45 billion in revenue for the current quarter, just under analysts’ forecast of $45.9 billion. Nvidia said that number would have been roughly $8 billion higher without the ongoing export curbs to China.

Nvidia stock just reached an all-time closing high of $159.34 on July 3. The stock is up 17.8% year-to-date.

Citi lifts Nvidia stock target on strong AI demand

Citi analyst Atif Malik raised the firm’s price target on Nvidia to $190 from $180 and reiterated a buy rating, citing the company’s artificial intelligence total addressable market expansion.

Citi now expects the addressable market in 2028 for data center semiconductors used in AI to reach $563 billion, up 13% from its prior expectation of $500 billion. The increase is partly driven by higher-than-expected sovereign AI demand, the analyst said in a research note published on July 7.

Sovereign AI means governments building their own AI systems. Citi added that sovereign demand could bring “billions of dollars in 2025” and continue growing into 2026.

The firm raised Nvidia’s expected FY27 and FY28 data center sales by 5% and 11%, respectively.

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Citi also highlighted a smooth ramp-up of the company’s Blackwell chips. “The concerns of potential bottlenecks in terms of supply are no longer justified,” Malik wrote, pointing to the strong pace of GB200 rack deployments.

Malik expects Nvidia’s gross margins to reach the mid-70% range by year-end. While the Trump administration’s potential curbs on countries like Malaysia and Thailand on shipments to China could pose modest risks, he believes that Nidia has “good ways to track its GPUs.”