Analyst turns heads with new Rocket Lab forecast after deal

The Lightning God is getting ready to blast off.

If you’re thinking this is the title of the next Marvel Studios movie, well, it ain’t. At least not yet.

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The Lightning God Reigns is actually the name of Rocket Lab  (RKLB)  USA’s next mission, which has a March 15 launch window.

The Long Beach, Calif., aerospace company said its 61st Electron rocket launch will be a dedicated mission for Japanese satellite manufacturer and operator Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space, or iQPS.

The spacecraft will join iQPS’s growing Earth-imaging constellation, which delivers high-resolution monitoring from specific locations every 10 minutes.

The Lightning God Reigns is the first of eight planned launches for iQPS across 2025 and 2026 to build out that company’s constellation. It follows an earlier mission for iQPS that RocketLab launched in December 2023. 

Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said his company was ‘pursuing every part of the space value chain.’ (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

Phil Walter/Getty Images

CEO: Rocket Lab strategic direction is clear

Each planned mission includes a Rocket Lab Motorized Lightband, used to separate and deploy the satellite from Electron — the company’s partly reusable orbital launch vehicle — once it’s in space.

But that’s not all that Rocket Lab is up to.

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On March 12, Rocket Lab said it had been awarded a contract by Airbus Constellation Satellites  (EADSY)  to supply high-efficiency solar panels for 100 OneWeb Low Earth Orbit satellites commissioned by the French satellite operator Eutelsat Group.  (ETCMY)

OneWeb satellites are designed to provide high-speed, low-latency global internet access to remote and underserved areas, Rocket Lab said.

Rocket Lab will produce and deliver 200 solar panels, comprising carbon composite panel substrates, solar cells and photovoltaic assemblies. 

Production will take place at Rocket Lab’s solar-manufacturing facility in Albuquerque, N.M.

Just a day earlier Rocket Lab unveiled a nonbinding agreement to acquire Mynaric  (MYNA) , a German company that specializes in laser communication equipment for airborne and spaceborne communication networks,

Mynaric is undergoing a restructuring under German law to address financial distress, including a capital reduction and debt relief.

The transaction, which involves a $75 million cash payment and a possible further $75 million in shares depending on future performance, is expected to close following the completion of the restructuring.

Mynaric is already a subcontractor to Rocket Lab, providing Condor Mk3 optical communication terminals. They’re designed for the company’s $515 million prime contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency to produce 18 satellites for the Tranche 2 Transport Layer-Beta constellation.

Peter Beck, Rocket Lab founder and CEO, said in a statement that Mynaric “has paved the way in developing laser technology.”

Analyst says Mynaric deal is encouraging 

“We have been very clear about this strategic direction for several years now – Rocket Lab is pursuing every part of the space value chain,” he said. 

“We launch our own rockets, we build satellites in constellation volumes, and now we’re closing in on the final step and most valuable part of the space economy – operating our own constellations to provide data and services from space using our newly announced Flatellite spacecraft,” Beck added.

Related: Analyst reboots Rocket Lab stock price target after earnings

The company said that Flatellite, Rocket Lab’s new satellite, can be produced in high volumes and tailored for large constellations, targeting high-value applications and national-security missions.

Roth MKM analyst Suji Desilva called Rocket Lab’s plan to acquire Mynaric “encouraging.”

Desilva, who affirmed a buy rating and $25 price target on Rocket Lab, said the acquisition adds to RLAB’s already strong space systems portfolio and also increases the company’s operational footprint in Europe.

Rocket Lab’s shares are down nearly 31% year-to-date but have quadrupled (up 312%) from a year ago.

On March 10 Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Rocket Lab to $20 from $18 and reiterated an equal weight rating on the shares. 

After the stock’s 360% run in 2024, it has underperformed the market by about 25% year-to-date, in part due to questions about the readiness of Neutron, Rocket Lab’s new medium-lift rocket program, the firm said.

The target of second-half 2025 for Neutron’s debut reflects “a relatively modest delay,” said Morgan Stanley, which raised its target after RLAB posted its Q4 results.

Last month, Rocket Lab reported a quarterly loss of 10 cents a share, in line with analysts’ consensus forecast and matching the year-earlier figure.

Revenue totaled $132.4 million, which surpassed the estimate of $130 million and more than doubled from a year earlier.

Rocket Lab forecast first-quarter revenue of $120 million, which was 13.4% below analysts’ estimates.

Beck told analysts during the company’s earnings call that 2025 will be “the year of Neutron.”

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