Analyst who forecast Rocket Lab rally below $10 updates outlook | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

The Pareto Principle, or 80/20 rule, suggests that 80% of effects often result from 20% of causes. The principle suggests investors can expect most of their gains from a few stock picks.

Sure, it would be nice if portfolios were packed only with winners. However, even the best hedge fund managers are right 50% to 60% of the time. Many stock buys simply don’t pan out, but those that do can deliver game-changing results.

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Consider those lucky enough to buy Apple or Amazon in the 1990s or, more recently, those who picked up Palantir, an AI company with deep Department of Defense roots, and Rocket Lab, a space technology company, when they were trading in single digits before their massive moves higher.

Nobody will catch every idea, but long-time Wall Street analyst Stephen Guilfoyle is on a bit of a winning streak. He was early to Palantir and Rocket Lab, recommending both when they traded below $10 per share.

Guilfoyle has stayed bullish on both stocks despite significant moves higher. Recently, he updated his Rocket Lab outlook after shares skyrocketed this month.

A Rocket Lab USA rocket lifts off into space. In 2025, the company’s share price has gained 85% year to date.

Image source&colon; Rocket Lab USA

Rocket Lab stock has a moonshot moment before critical launch

Space technology companies are increasingly winning contracts to deliver payloads into space, and that’s captured the attention of investors.

The best-known player in space technology is Elon Musk’s SpaceX, a juggernaut with a $400 billion valuation thanks to contracts for its Falcon rockets, which send astronauts to the space station and satellites into orbit.

Rocket Lab is less well-known but has carved out a valuable niche selling parts to build satellites and low-earth orbit launch services for lighter payloads.

Thanks to a steady demand for its Electron rocket launch services and satellite components, Rocket Lab’s annual revenue increased to $436 million in 2024 from $211 million in 2022, when shares were trading below $5 per share.

The company has yet to turn profitable, but a steady slate of new contract awards and the upcoming potential to use its latest Neutron rocket to cut into SpaceX’s business for medium-size payloads have served as major catalysts for its stock price.

Rocket Lab’s recent contract wins include a chance to compete for a share of the $5.6 billion contract for the U.S. Space Force’s National Security Space Launch program. It was also chosen to participate in the $46 billion Air Force Eglin Wide Agile Acquisition defense contract. In 2023, it won a $515 million deal to build 18 satellites for the Space Development Agency.

Its first Neutron rocket launch, designed for medium-sized payloads, is slated for before the end of this year.

It also hasn’t hurt Rocket Lab’s stock price that Elon Musk has had a very public falling out with President Trump.

After leaving the Department of Government Efficiency, which was tasked with reducing the deficit, Musk became a vocal opponent of the Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the CBO forecasts will increase the US debt by nearly $3.4 trillion through 2034.

In response, President Trump has suggested that contracts with Elon Musk’s companies get reexamined, potentially setting the stage for competitors, including Rocket Lab, to win contracts that may otherwise have been heading to SpaceX.

Analyst updates Rocket Lab stock price target after major move

The potential for Rocket Lab stock to reward investors with gains prompted Guilfoyle to increase his stock price target in July to $51.

Within days, Rocket Lab eclipsed his target, prompting Guilfoyle to readjust his outlook again.

“On Tuesday [July 15], two days ago, I informed readers of my new plan to sell a “token” amount of Rocket Lab as those shares had topped my target price of $42,” wrote Guilfoyle on TheStreet Pro. “I then set a new target of $51. Good thing I used the word “token” because RKLB is already trading above $51.”

The parabolic move higher in such a short period has led to Guilfoyle yanking his $51 target.

“I’m up 456% on this one. It’s up 54% over the past 30 days and up 172% over the past 90 days,” wrote Guilfoyle. “We have a stock that has gone parabolic on our hands. Rocket Lab does not report until August 7.”

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Absent a catalyst and given the stocks’ straight-line higher style move, Guilfoyle thinks shares may have gotten a little ahead of themselves.

“Relative strength is now significantly into technically overbought territory. The daily MACD, below the chart, is now postured beyond what we refer to as extremely bullishly,” wrote Guilfoyle.

Since shares have become overbought, he decided to take more off the table. Although he’s pruning, he’s far from bearish.

“My plan is to sell another token because we have to maintain discipline, but not too much. This is my third-largest holding in terms of weighting and if there is major news coming, I want to be well positioned for it,” said Guilfoyle.

So, what’s Guilfoyle doing about his Rocket Lab price target now that he’s sold more shares?

He’s taking a wait-and-see approach, letting it settle out before reevaluating where it could head next.

“I am cancelling my $52 target price for now. I could just set a ridiculous target price, but I think it wise to allow for consolidation to set in at some point. At least then, I should have some kind of pattern development to work with. In the meantime, after this token sale. I am not selling anything until either something breaks, or we know more,” concluded Guilfoyle.