- Prior was 3.7%
This isn’t a surprise after the downgrade to the wholesale inventories data released earlier today. The next update ont his metric comes in a week but we’re getting closer to the first release of Q3 GDP.
The report said:
“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 3.6 percent on October 8, down from 3.7 percent on October 6. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 2.07 percentage points to 1.98 percentage points.”
That number shows that inventories are doing much of the heavy lifting for Q3.
For background, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker provides a running estimate of US economic growth ahead of the official quarterly GDP release. Its headline number measures inflation-adjusted growth from the previous quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, rather than growth from a year earlier.
The model combines forecasts for 13 GDP components, using methods designed to resemble the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s calculations. Updates incorporate incoming reports on areas including consumer spending, construction, manufacturing, trade and inventories. As new information arrives, the estimate changes to reflect what those figures imply for quarterly output.
Crucially, GDPNow is not an official forecast from the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve. It is a mechanical model without subjective adjustments, so a revision does not signal a change in policymakers’ views or interest-rate intentions.
Early estimates can move sharply because much of the quarter’s data remains unavailable. Trade and inventory swings can also produce large changes in headline growth without equivalent shifts in underlying domestic demand.
For traders, the useful information is often what drove the revision. Stronger consumer spending carries different implications from temporary stockbuilding or a narrower trade deficit. GDPNow helps translate individual releases into a broader growth picture, but remains an estimate rather than a definitive verdict on economic momentum.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
