Aviation CEO sounds alarm about COVID-style shutdown | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

After accusing the South American country of “unfair” trading practices and a “witch hunt” in prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro for attempts to overturn the 2022 election, Donald Trump is threatening to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods sold to the United States — a far-reaching move that would affect the billions of dollars of Embraer (ERJ) aircraft and parts that are sold to airlines in the U.S. every year.

According numbers published by the manufacturer, the United States made up 45% of the commercial aircraft that Embraer sold in 2024 and 70% of its executive aircraft.

Don’t miss the move: SIGN UP for TheStreet’s FREE Daily newsletter

‘An impact similar to that of COVID-19 in terms of decline’

“Given the relevance of this market, we estimate that if this [tariff plan] moves on at this magnitude, we will have an impact similar to that of COVID-19 in terms of the decline in the company’s revenue,” Embraer CEO Francisco Gomes Neto said to investors of the tariffs.

When countries shut their borders and travel numbers ground to a halt amid the global pandemic in 2020, Embraer saw sales of aircraft go down by more than 30%. Both within the U.S. and globally, Embraer is under contract to deliver more than 3,000 commercial aircraft by 2045.

The ERJ-135/145 is frequently used by regional carriers such as Republic Airways, SkyWest and Envoy Air. Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery also reported that the jet manufacturer also has 203 orders for E175 jets for U.S.-based regional airlines already under production.

SkyWest has purchased 60 while American Airlines (AAL) has 90 outstanding deliveries.

While still up by more than 22% since the start of 2025, Embraer shares fell by 30% when Trump first threatened the tariffs on July 11.

Alaska Airlines is another frequent purchaser of Embraer aircraft.

(Photo by AaronP/Bauer-Griffin/GC Images)

With tariff volatility, Embraer sees potential in other markets

While the tariff impact would be devastating to Embraer, it would also hit local airlines hard as it is one of the world’s main producers of small commercial jets used to fly to remote or low-traffic operations while its Phenom and Praetor models are instrumental to the private jet purchasers as some of the most high-end on the market. The U.S. Air Force was the latest client to order three A-29 Super Tucano Turboprop close-air-support (CAS) planes last year.

“It is a very new situation, so everyone is trying to understand this process and working toward reaching a solution within the deadline,” Neto said further of the current tariff threat.

In a separate interview with local outlet Aviation World, Gomes said that the company was seeing potential in India as a country with skyrocketing demand for internal air travel.

More on travel:

“Embraer sees a lot of opportunities in Defense sector with Indian Air Force for the Medium Transport Aircraft project, commercial jets, we see a good opportunity for us to replace the old turboprop, because now India is building a lot of highways,” Gomes Neto said in the interview. “They are competing with the turboprops that are slow and cannot fly longer and we believe, we have a good opportunity for our E-Jets, either the E-175 or the modern E-195 E2.”