Billionaire investor talks US debt, geopolitics, and new world order | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

Bridgewater Capital founder Ray Dalio recently sat down for an interview with Bloomberg, during which he discussed everything from his upbringing to what he has been doing since he resigned from the hedge fund in 2021 and sold his final ownership stake in August.

Dalio shared his current view of society, and thanks to his extensive historical research, he sees parallels between the present and some of the darkest times in world history.

The interview includes footage from Dalio’s 1982 testimony before the U.S. Congress. He has been warning about the strength of the U.S. economy for some time.

“The economy is now flat, teetering on the brink of failure,” Dalio told Congress. In another video, he said, “There is such a reduced level of liquidity that you could return to an era of stagflation.”

But Dalio was wrong then. The market had already bottomed out, and the good times would continue until Black Monday, October 19, 1987.

“I lost money for me, I lost money for my clients. I was so broke I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad to take care of my family,” Dalio said. He also said the experience taught him humility. He started asking himself, “How do I know I’m right?” more often.

He admits he was wrong in the 1980s, but said the warning signs he now sees from the U.S. government could lead to cataclysmic events in the near future.

Ray Dalio is sharing his wisdom about where he sees U.S. society headed.

Kimberly White/Getty Images for TechCrunch

Ray Dalio warns of U.S. debt levels

Dalio spoke to Bloomberg (subscription required) about his path to build Bridgewater Capital, his decision to leave the company, and what he’s doing with his time now (exploring the deep ocean with OceanX).

While the interview was wide-ranging, perhaps the most intriguing part was when Dalio started talking about the state of geopolitics and the United States’ financial place in the world.

Dalio believes U.S. debt levels are rising too quickly, leading to a financial environment that resembles the years directly preceding World War II.

“There’s a dynamic about debt,” Dalio said. “When debt and debt service rise relative to your income, it’s like plaque in the arteries that then begins to squeeze out the spending. One man’s debts are another man’s assets.”

“If those don’t give a good real return, they will sell,” he said. “So there’s a dynamic that we’re facing today in which that’s happening to the government. It’s squeezing out the debt service.”

The U.S. government is running into this issue right now, according to Dalio.

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates a $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit this year, to add to the nearly $38 trillion national debt. The most significant cost adding to the deficit is servicing the national debt.

The U.S. surpassed $1 trillion in debt payments for the first time in U.S. history in fiscal 2025, according to the CBO, as debt services increased $80 billion, or 8%, year over year.

U.S. financial situation will cause civil unrest, Ray Dalio says

Under this debt situation, Dalio believes civil unrest is inevitable due to the effect that low liquidity and rising debt have on a country.

“That’s not just a belief; it is an understanding of the cause and effect relationships, the mechanics that show repeatedly,” Dalio told Bloomberg.

He listed the five forces he believes shape world history in perpetuity.

Ray Dalio’s 5 forces that shape world history:

Money: Fiat, debt, etc.
Internal order and disorder: Larger wealth gaps cause more disorder
Geopolitics: U.S.-led multilateral approach has been replaced with a unilateral one
Acts of nature: Droughts, floods, and famine
New technologies

“These forces interrelate with each other,” according to Dalio, to create the current world order.

But the current world order reminds Dalio of 1938, right before World War II broke out.

“You have the debt issue. You have the internal conflicts of wealth and how things should be run. Disorder existed. Four democracies stopped being democracies,” Dalio said. But this time around could be even worse because, “our power to hurt each other has never been greater,” Dalio said.

Dalio says that society is already in wars on multiple fronts.

There is a financial, money war. There is a technology war. There is a geopolitical war. There are more military wars. We have a civil war of some sort developing in the U.S. and other places. Either we will rise above it and realize that our common good is going to necessitate dealing with it, so that what works for most people is going to work. I think that is a little idealistic, and I have to be a practical person….these conflicts will become tests of power by each side. In history, we have to recognize that all orders have come to an end, then there’s a new order….if we don’t worry about these things, then we have greater risks.

Ray Dalio