Main PageMay 22, 2026

Canada retail sales for March 0.9% vs 0.6% estimate

  • Prior month 0.7%
  • Retail sales 0.9% vs 0.6% estimate
  • Retail sales ex autos 1.4% vs 0.9% estimate

Other details:

  • Retail sales rose 0.9% in March to $72.7 billion.
  • Four of nine subsectors posted gains, led by gasoline stations and fuel vendors.

Core Retail Sales:

  • Core retail sales (excluding gasoline stations/fuel vendors and motor vehicle/parts dealers) fell 0.1% in March. The first decline after two monthly moves higher.
  • Retail sales volumes declined 0.7% in March, indicating lower real spending after adjusting for prices.
  • Building material and garden equipment/supplies dealers led the decline, with sales falling 2.9% in March after a 0.7% decline in February.
  • General merchandise retailers saw sales fall 0.5%, marking the first decline in three months.
  • The largest increase in core retail sales came from food and beverage retailers, where sales rose 0.5%.
  • Within that category, supermarkets and other grocery retailers (excluding convenience stores) posted a 0.8% increase in sales.

First Quarter details:

  • First-quarter 2026 retail sales increased 2.1%, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly gain.
  • Retail sales volumes rose 1.2% in Q1 2026.

The problem is in the ex Gas. The number was not so hot if you take out the gains from gas (higher prices). The retail sales volume declined by -0.7% . The largest increase in retail sales in March was observed at gasoline stations and fuel vendors (+12.4%). In volume terms, sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors fell 1.9% in March. With sales surging while volume decreasing, it is indicative of the impact from higher prices.

  • Advanced retail sales for April +0.6%*

*This unofficial estimate was calculated based on responses received from 52.1% of companies surveyed. The average final response rate for the survey over the previous 12 months was 88.3%.

The USDCAD is higher and approaches the next targets including the 61.8% retracement and the 200 day MA between 1.38068 and 1.3813 respectively. The high just ticked to 1.3806.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.