Let’s be honest: If you drive a diesel truck or a gasoline-powered car, any trip to fill a fuel tank in September was shockingly painful.
Maybe the fourth quarter will bring prices down. Wall Street thinks it’s possible, but hard forecasts on diesel and gasoline prices are hard to come by. Meanwhile, the war between Israel, the United States and Iran is seven months old — and counting.
Related: Crude oil is falling, but when will pump relief arrive?
U.S. diesel prices jumped 14.5% to $6.414 a gallon in JUST one month, according to AAA Fuel Prices. Gasoline prices rose 8.7% to $4.433.
We can answer the question listed just above: Gas prices are down from their May peaks, maybe about 3%. But you’re allowed to mutter, “Big whoop.”
Meanwhile, light sweet crude, the benchmark U.S. oil, settled at $90.53 per 42-gallon barrel, up 1.3% on the day and up 5.6% for September and 30% for the third quarter. For the year, it was up 58%.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 2% to $98.03, an 8% gain for the month . It was up 34% in the third quarter and is up 61% in 2026.
If there was any solace to be had, it’s two, maybe three things:
- At least it wasn’t May when gas prices peaked at $4.566 a gallon, according to both AAA and GasBuddy.com.
- At least it wasn’t June 2022 when post-Covid inflation pushed AAA’s and GasBuddy’s national averages above $5.20 a gallon.
- Lastly, autumn is upon us, when oil prices typically come down and pull retail gas and diesel prices lower as well. In 2025, AAA’s retail gas price fell 12% between its June peak and the end of the year. Diesel fell a more modest 6.2% between its November 2025 peak and Dec. 31.
Oil and gas tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Getty Images
A path to $4 gasoline?
Wall Street analysts do see crude prices coming down a bit in the fourth quarter, which should make a visit to a gas pump a touch less painful. Maybe to $4 a gallon or lower.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman see light sweet crude averaging $85 a barrel, with Brent averaging $90.22.
Commodity trader John Kilduff of Again Capital in New York thinks those estimates are a little rich. He’s betting on $82 a barrel on light sweet crude and $85 a barrel on Brent.
Reason: The U.S.-imposed economic sanctions are having a real effect on the Iranian economy, Kilduff told theStreet. These include telling any country supplying goods and services such as jet fuel will be cut off from the global payment system, which is in dollars.
Iran’s economy is getting squeezed badly, he said.
Plus more non-Iranian crude oil is getting out of the Persian Gulf and then transferred to tankers in the Indian Ocean. And Saudi Arabia has repaired its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea so crude exports can resume.
More on oil and the economy
- Zillow, Redfin speak bluntly on mortgage rates, housing market
- Costco limits motor oil purchases as crude hits 4-month highs
- A bond market revolt pushes a key rate to 19-year high
There are just so many uncertainties
But the complexity of politics in the Persian GuIf is making the process of achieving a real settlement difficult.
Iran’s government has not shown much interest in a deal, despite the war damage and economic sanctions. The Trump Administration’s agenda is basically for Iran somehow to surrender.
And there are other wild cards at work. A pilot stabbed his co-pilot aboard a plane headed to Israel on Sept. 30 and may have tried to crash the aircraft with 174 people onboard, reports said.
Saudi Arabia has had to struggle with attempts by Houthi rebels to close off the Red Sea, and drones fired by rebels based in Iraq shut down the Saudi’s pipeline from the Persian Gulf to its oil port at Yanbu.
The U.S. economy is having to cope with the stresses of the war and higher energy prices. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29%, its highest level since May 2002, The Wall Street Journal reported.
U.S. stocks mostly slumped in response. Technology and tech-related stocks showed some strength, but nine of the 11 sectors in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were lower.
And, of course, the U.S. midterm elections are just 34 days away.
Related: Middle East, Ukraine just dealt another blow to your wallet
