I posted a preview of the Australian jobs report here:

• For the Reserve Bank: despite a softening labour outlook, inflation risks tied to the energy shock remain the dominant concern. As a result, upcoming labour data is unlikely to materially shift near-term policy expectations.

China’s first-quarter GDP is expected to show a modest pickup in growth, supported by resilient exports, though the outlook for the remainder of 2026 is increasingly clouded by external risks and weak domestic demand.

Economists broadly expect the January–March expansion to come in around 4.7–4.8% year-on-year, up from 4.5–5.0% in the fourth quarter, marking a tentative rebound after growth slowed to a multi-year low late last year. On a quarterly basis, activity is seen improving slightly to around 1.3%, suggesting some stabilisation in momentum at the start of the year.

However, the underlying detail points to a still-fragile recovery. March activity indicators are expected to remain soft overall, with retail sales forecast to slow to around 2.5% year-on-year, highlighting persistent weakness in household consumption. Fixed-asset investment is also seen subdued at roughly 1.9% year-to-date, reflecting ongoing caution among businesses and local governments.

Industrial production is a relative bright spot, projected to grow around 5.5% year-on-year, underpinned by export-oriented manufacturing and pockets of strength in high-tech sectors. Even so, export momentum is expected to cool as the year progresses, particularly if global demand weakens.

The property sector remains a key drag. Nationwide housing prices across China’s 70 major cities are expected to stay in negative territory, though any signs of a slower pace of decline would offer tentative encouragement that the sector is nearing a bottom.

Looking ahead, economists expect growth to ease through the rest of 2026, with full-year GDP projected around 4.6%. The ongoing Middle East conflict, via higher energy costs and pressure on global demand, is seen as a growing headwind, squeezing corporate margins and complicating the recovery.

Policy support is likely to remain measured. With growth tracking within Beijing’s 4.5–5.0% target range, authorities may opt for incremental easing—such as reserve requirement cuts—rather than large-scale stimulus, while continuing to prioritise consumption support over the medium term.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.