Federal Reserve data from May 2026 shows credit card delinquencies at a 15-year high, with 13.1% of balances 90 days past due in the first quarter, according to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.
That figure revived a familiar fear: American households are stretching their borrowing to the breaking point, and a pullback in consumer spending could soon follow.
Fisher Investments challenged that narrative in a June 2 analysis, arguing that the delinquency numbers appear distorted when separated from the broader household balance sheet.
The wealth management firm says the alarm is overblown because credit card debt occupies a much smaller share of household finances than the coverage implies.
Credit card balances represent a fraction of total household debt
Credit card debt fell to $1.25 trillion at the end of the first quarter, a $25 billion decline from the fourth quarter of 2025.
That drop came from a record high and followed the predictable post-holiday paydown cycle that repeats nearly every year, the New York Fed reported.
Fisher Investments notes that credit cards make up only about 7% of the nation’s $18.8 trillion in total household debt. Mortgages, auto loans, and student debt account for most of it, meaning late credit card payments carry far less systemic significance.
Aggregate household debt levels rose slightly, with modest increases in most debt types offsetting a seasonal decline in credit card balances.
Measured against household assets, credit card balances equal about 0.6% of total assets and 6.2% of liquid holdings such as deposits, the Fisher Investments report noted.
Fisher Investments concluded that Americans’ liquid net worth sits higher than at any pre-pandemic point since the early 1990s, suggesting aggregate household finances are on firmer footing than before the 2008 crisis.
Fisher Investments says delinquency rates echo pre-pandemic territory
Fisher Investments places the credit card figure in a broader context, noting that the aggregate serious delinquency rate across all household debt stood at 3.4% in the first quarter, a return to pre-pandemic levels.
The firm argued that similar or higher credit card delinquency rates persisted through the early 2010s without producing a consumer spending collapse or a recession.
A moratorium on student loan payments during the Biden administration suppressed aggregate delinquency figures for several years, creating an artificially low baseline.
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The resumption of those payments has simply pushed the overall delinquency rate back toward its longer-term historical norm, the analysis explained.
Aggregate delinquency across all debt types held steady at 4.8% of outstanding balances in the first quarter, the New York Fed reported.
Transitions into early credit card delinquency actually ticked down slightly, from 8.7% to 8.6%, during the same period, the data show.
Credit card delinquencies have returned to pre-pandemic levels, but historical trends suggest consumers remain resilient and recession risks are still limited.
Debt payments take a smaller share of income than they did before 2020
Fisher Investments points to the household debt service ratio as key evidence against claims that consumers have hit a spending wall. The metric, which measures required debt payments as a share of disposable income, remains below any pre-pandemic level.
Households currently dedicate a smaller share of their earnings to debt payments than at any point before the pandemic, according to Federal Reserve data.
The revolving credit balance-to-disposable-income ratio reinforces the same conclusion, having dipped to 7.72% in the first quarter, according to calculations by Wolf Street using Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve data.
That level is below the readings observed during the pre-pandemic expansion years, which most economists describe as a healthy baseline.
Fisher Investments argued that rising incomes have given most households enough headroom to absorb higher balances, a dynamic the firm says separates this cycle from the prelude to the 2008 crisis.
Subprime borrowers, not broader consumer base, drive delinquency surge
The aggregate data masks a clear divide between prime borrowers with strong credit and subprime borrowers under inflation and high-rate pressure. Credit analysts describe this as a K-shaped credit market, with the two groups diverging in opposite directions.
“A subset of consumers, primarily subprime borrowers, has driven most of the increase in delinquencies, while prime borrowers have experienced only a marginal deterioration in credit performance,” said Christian Floro, market strategist at Principal Asset Management.
Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion, noted that card balance growth has decelerated sharply.
The double-digit expansion of 2022 and 2023 has given way to what Siegfried described as “remarkably consistent” balance growth, with delinquency rates relatively flat over three years, according to TransUnion’s first-quarter 2026 industry report.
For prime-rated cardholders, the 60-plus day delinquency rate dipped to 0.94% in the first quarter, sitting below pre-pandemic lows, according to Fitch Ratings data analyzed by Wolf Street.
First-quarter data tell two different stories, depending on where you sit
Austin Kilgore of the Achieve Center for Consumer Insights argued that rising household balances reflect financial strain more than economic confidence, as many consumers struggle to keep wages and savings aligned with essential costs such as groceries, utilities, and housing.
Fisher Investments concluded that the delinquency data does not support the narrative of a consumer sector on the verge of collapse.
The firm acknowledged real hardship among affected borrowers but argued that credit cards are too small a slice of debt to drive a downturn.
Related: Why You Should Pay Almost Everything With a Credit Card