Headlines:

• Trump says that 80% tariffs on China “seems right”
• Trump says that China should open up its market to the US
• India reportedly offers to cut tariffs gap by two-thirds to seal trade deal with the US
• How have interest rates expectations changed after the first trade deal?
• Fed’s Barr: Monetary policy is in a good position to adjust as conditions unfold
• Fed’s Barr: We need to be in a wait and see approach
• Fed’s Barkin: Tariffs to lead to higher inflation and lower growth in US and abroad
• Fed’s Kugler: The US labour market is stable, close to maximum employment
• More from Fed’s Kugler: Our policy right now is moderately restrictive
• ECB’s Rehn: Disinflation is on track and the growth outlook is weakening
• ECB’s Simkus: Eurozone inflation depends on EU retaliation to the US
• BoE’s Bailey: Our commitment to the 2% inflation target is unwavering
• BOE’s Pill: Not seeing a dramatic shift in the UK economy after tariff announcements
• PBOC reaffirms that it will implement moderately loose monetary policy
• Nippon Steel says position on planned acquisition of US Steel remains unchanged

Markets:

• JPY leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 1.9 bps to 4.392%
• Gold up 0.8% to $3,334.02
• WTI crude up 2.2% to $61.25
• Bitcoin up 0.3% to $102,988

The main headline of the session came in the last half hour or so as Trump said that 80% tariffs on China would “seem right”. That before making sure that if anything goes south, Bessent would be pushed under the bus.

In the immediate aftermath, markets are not all too sure what to make of the headline. The figure is higher than the 50% touted in reports yesterday but whether 50% or 80%, it’s a mere numbers game. If the idea is to get China to the negotiating table, it’s not going to work surely.

US futures whipsawed on the headline before dipping a little lower to pare gains. But as we continue to digest the situation, S&P 500 futures are now back a little higher up by 0.3%.

The dollar is less enthused though, with USD/JPY now down 0.5% to 145.15 and EUR/USD up 0.2% on the day to 1.1250 levels. Meanwhile, USD/CHF is also lower by 0.1% to 0.8310 while AUD/USD has pared earlier losses to be flat at 0.6400 currently.

In other markets, bonds are holding lower as well with 10-year yields now up to 4.39% and 30-year yields up to 4.87% on the day. Then, we have gold also keeping higher by 0.9% to $3,334 as traders continue to digest what this all means ahead of US-China talks tomorrow.

It’s going to be an interesting end to the week, not least with market players eyeing more trade headlines before the end of the day. We’ll also have to watch out for positioning plays ahead of US-China talks, as that could lead to a significant gap on either side at the open on Monday.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.