General Motors receives final grades from analysts ahead of Q4 earnings | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

In 2025, an odd year for all manufacturers, the industry was forced to navigate unfamiliar waters on the fly after the U.S. implemented 25% tariffs on automotive and auto parts imports.

The change suddenly added billions in overhead costs to original equipment manufacturers such as General Motors.

U.S. 2025 new-vehicle sales forecast

GM: 2.83 million vehicles (+5.1% year over year); 17.3% market share
Toyota: 2.52 million vehicles (+8.4% YoY); 15.5% market share
Ford: 2.18 million vehicles (+5.6% YoY); 13.4% market share
Hyundai: 1.84 million vehicles (+7.9% YoY); 11.3% market share
Honda: 1.42 million vehicles (+0.6% YoY); 8.8% market share Source: Cox Automotive

Nearly half of the vehicles GM sold in the U.S. in 2024 were imported, about 1.23 million. GM imported more vehicles than Toyota.

GM reclaimed the U.S. market crown in 2025, selling 2.83 million vehicles during the year with a 17.3% market share.

But it wasn’t all good news.

Two weeks ago, General Motors announced that slowing down its electric vehicle ambitions would be extremely costly.

Analysts suggest 2026 will be a strong year for General Motors.

Photo by Nic Antaya on Getty Images

BNP Paribas analysts see bright future for GM

General Motors is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter results ahead of the opening bell on Tuesday, Jan. 27. Analysts are expecting the company to report earnings of $2.26 per share on revenue of $46.04 billion.

Analysts at BNP Paribas released a note suggesting 2026 will be a strong year for the company. “We see continued outperformance levers in 2026 amid its more consistent execution, market share and free cash flow vs Ford, notably unlocking stronger shareholder returns.”

GM investors have “favorably low inventories,” and lower tariffs from Korea to look forward to next year, according to the firm, which raised GM’s price target to $95 from $83 per share.

However, earlier this month, in an 8-K filing, GM detailed the $6 billion charge it incurred in the fourth quarter due to its electric vehicle division.

Approximately $1.8 billion of that amount is comprised of non-cash charges for supplier commercial settlements and contract cancellation fees.

The rest is comprised of cash charges of $4.2 billion, as it looks to wind down production in response to waning U.S. demand for electric vehicles.

Car buyers flocked to dealerships to take advantage of the $7,500 EV tax credit before it expired at the end of September. But even at the height of the mania in the third quarter, cracks were apparent.

U.S. consumers purchased 90 different EV models in the third quarter, but only nine sold more than 10,000 units.

Tesla Model Y and Model 3 were top sellers, moving more than 114,000 and 53,000 vehicles, respectively, and the Chevy Equinox sold just under 25,000.

But those three models were outliers.

“The vast majority of EVs sell at a rate of far less than 2,000 units a month, or 6,000 units a quarter. In the volume-driven business of automotive manufacturing, low volume is the enemy; EV profitability remains a distant dream for nearly every automaker,” according to Cox Automotive.

GM looks to build on strong Q3

General Motors is looking to build on a third quarter in which the company reported a 17% market share, up 50 basis points (half a percentage point) to its highest third-quarter level since 2017.

The company had such a strong quarter that it reduced the amount it expected to pay in tariffs for the year to between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, down from its previous estimate of $4 billion to $5 billion.

GM also raised its 2025 EBIT adjusted guidance to between $12 billion and $13 billion.

GM CEO Mary Barra admitted at the time that “near-term EV adoption will be much lower than planned,” as the company recognized the coming decline in EV demand ahead of time.

“Following recent U.S. Government policy changes, including the termination of certain consumer tax incentives for EV purchases and the reduction in the stringency of emissions regulations, we expect the adoption rate of EVs to slow,” GM said in an 8-K filing in October.

The company’s board of directors approved third-quarter charges of $1.6 billion in GM North America for a “planned strategic realignment of our EV capacity and manufacturing footprint” that will match consumer demand.

“Over the past several years, our portfolio and capacity plans have been shaped by steadily increasing regulatory stringency for fuel economy and emissions. To meet these requirements, we aggressively expanded our electric vehicle capacity,” CEO Mary Barra said in an October letter.

“However, with the evolving regulatory framework and the end of federal consumer incentives, it is now clear that near-term EV adoption will be lower than planned. That is why we are reassessing our EV capacity and manufacturing footprint… By acting swiftly and decisively to address overcapacity, we expect to reduce EV losses in 2026 and beyond,” Barra said.