• Industrial orders -3.8% vs -2.0% m/m expected
• Prior +5.0%; revised to +4.5%

After the big surge in March, German industrial orders fell back in April as the effect from stockpiling and advanced ordering looks to fade as quickly as it all came. Even if excluding large orders (the more volatile component), the monthly figure in April still reflected a 3.8% decline compared to March.

As such, it is a good bet that the jump in March was largely tied to stockpiling and advanced ordering in anticipation of price increases and availability issues. And in April, the effect of that is wearing off as the Middle East conflict begins to bite.

Looking to the less volatile three-month comparison, new orders from February to April were 3.1% lower than in the preceding three months. But when excluding large orders, they were up 3.5% over the same period. So, there is still some positive takeaway at least but again just be reminded of the caveat to the March numbers. Fearing the war, firms certainly looked to have moved to frontload inventory and run up the orderbook in fear that supply chain issues will strike.

The more detailed breakdown for April shows foreign orders falling by 4.2% while domestic orders fell by 2.9%. Orders for capital goods were 2.9% lower, intermediate goods 4.4% lower, and orders for consumer goods fell by 6.7% compared to the month before.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.